Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Hastings, NE

885 
WWUS53 KGID 130110
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
810 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

NEC143-185-130145-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-110513T0145Z/
POLK NE-YORK NE-
810 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YORK AND POLK
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 807 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SHELBY TO WACO TO MCCOOL
JUNCTION...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  YORK...MCCOOL JUNCTION...LUSHTON...OSCEOLA...STROMSBURG...
  BENEDICT...BRADSHAW...HENDERSON...POLK AND THAYER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 4070 9782 4116 9782 4131 9765 4130 9763
      4131 9760 4133 9760 4139 9740 4139 9738
      4070 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 160DEG 6KT 4119 9745 4095 9748
          4085 9751 4074 9755
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

621 
WWUS53 KGID 130119
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
819 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

NEC143-185-130145-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-110513T0145Z/
POLK NE-YORK NE-
819 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN YORK
AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 816 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SHELBY TO WACO TO MCCOOL
JUNCTION...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OSCEOLA...STROMSBURG...BENEDICT...POLK AND THAYER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 4095 9782 4116 9782 4131 9765 4130 9763
      4131 9760 4133 9760 4139 9738 4089 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 160DEG 6KT 4120 9746 4096 9749
          4086 9752 4075 9756
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

917 
WWUS53 KGID 130139
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
839 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

NEC143-185-130149-
/O.EXP.KGID.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-110513T0145Z/
POLK NE-YORK NE-
839 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN YORK AND POLK
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT. 

LAT...LON 4095 9782 4116 9782 4131 9765 4130 9763
      4131 9760 4133 9760 4139 9738 4089 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 160DEG 6KT 4123 9747 4099 9750
          4089 9753 4078 9757

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
703 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. COMPLICATED FORECAST AS CEILINGS ARE
CHAOTIC DIRECTLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH.
EVENTUALLY...CEILINGS SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE IFR RANGE WITHIN
STRATUS WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS AN MID-LEVEL LOW CHURNS TO THE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY LATE
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AFTER SUNSET. WIND SHOULD BE
STIFF FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE
CEILING RISING TO THE LOWER END OF VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. I AM
MORE SLUGGISH WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THAN MODELS ARE
SHOWING...SINCE MODELS HAVE PERSISTENTLY BEEN TOO FAST WITH MOVING
THE MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BUSY WEATHER
DAY SO THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY ABBREVIATED AFD.

A FEW BOUNDARIES CRISS-CROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND LOW SHEAR...THIS IS A POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND LANDSPOUT TORNADOES WHICH MAY ANCHOR NEAR A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WILL BE EASY TO GET HAIL AS WET BULB
AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE PARTICULARLY LOW.

A LINE OF CONVECTION BROKE OUT ACROSS A QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST
BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN CWA WHICH MEETS YET ANOTHER BOUNDARY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND CURVES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN CWA. THE BOUNDARY
IN THE NORTHWEST HAS STARTED TO SURGE SOUTHEAST...AND A PARTICULAR
PLACE OF INTEREST WILL BE NEAR WHERE THESE TWO BOUNDARIES MEET AND
FARTHER TO THE EAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SET UP IN
THE NORTHERN CWA. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DEVELOPED NEAR THE
BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHWEST WITH STRATUS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SUN
BREAKING OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...SETTING UP A
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF BAROCLINICITY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS SURGING
NORTH OUT OF  KANSAS WITH MORE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THIS AS WELL.
ALL OF THESE BOUNDARIES MEET NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WHICH IS TRACKING
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE BY MID-EVENING...WHICH
SHOULD TAMP OUR SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT. AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MORE STABLE...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW TAKES
ITS TIME MOVING EAST. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY TRIED TO MOVE THIS
FEATURE TO THE EAST TO QUICKLY AND I HAVE HELD ON TO CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LATER INTO FRIDAY WITH THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF
MODELS.

IT FINALLY APPEARS WE WILL GET SOME CLEARING BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
WE SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW AS
IT MOVES EAST.

LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THE WEEKEND...MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN...WHICH AT 12Z SATURDAY SHOWS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE TROUGH PATTERN AS TWO
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE SIT OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA.  THE SYSTEM HAVING THE MAIN IMPACT ON OUR CWA IS THE ONE
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT S/SE AS THE
OTHER SYSTEM PUSHES EAST.  THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AND HOW QUICKLY
ENERGY BECOMES MORE PHASED TOGETHER. DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...AS THIS TROUGH AXIS DOESNT EXACTLY FLY THROUGH THE
REGION...AND WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT THINK THAT DAYTIME
HEATING/INCREASING LAPSE RATES COULD HELP TO POP A FEW SHOWERS.
KEPT THUNDER MENTION OUT WITH LITTLE/NO INSTABILITY PRESENT. SURFACE
PATTERN BOTH DAYS DOMINATED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S/AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTH.

AS WE GET INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH A RIDGE AXIS SETTING
UP ALONG THE ROCKIES/PLAINS AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SPIN OVER THE
MIDWEST/EAST COAST AND THE PAC NW.  KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING WITH NO
NOTABLE DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE CWA...AND WHILE SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AIR DOESNT LOOK TO BUILD IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE ON THE SFC PATTERN...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S/NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTH.

DECIDED TO INSERT SMALL POPS FOR WED/THURSDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING
/TO VARYING DEGREES/ THE RIDGE BECOMING BROKEN DOWN/PINCHED OFF BY A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.  ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
COOL BACK INTO THE 60S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 110 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. TRICKY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING
CEILINGS AND TIMING OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A BOUNDARY
LIES TO THE NORTH WITH LIFR/IFR STRATUS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY HAD MADE A RETREAT NORTH EARLIER IN THE
MORNING...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE MAKING A SLOW AND INEVITABLE MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE STUBBORN MID-LEVEL LOW CREEPS EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS. WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD MID-AFTERNOON INTO
PERHAPS THE EARLY EVENING. WITH A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WE COULD
GET SOME BRIEF AND WEAK LANDSPOUT TYPE TORNADOES DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY ENOUGH. WE
WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE A LOW CEILING OF STRATUS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ONCE IT
PASSES THROUGH. TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS
HAVE TRIED HURRYING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST FASTER THAN IT ACTUALLY
HAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

AVIATION/SHORT TERM/UPDATES...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1155 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
131200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1155 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 8 PM THIS
EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SUMNER TO HOLDREGE
NEBRASKA...TO SMITH CENTER KANSAS. WHILE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL
BE WITH DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT IN
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 8
PM THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SUMNER
TO HOLDREGE NEBRASKA...TO SMITH CENTER KANSAS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ADO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
718 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HAIL             FAIRMONT                40.64N 97.58W
05/12/2011  E1.00 INCH       FILLMORE           NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
726 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     HAIL             3 S MCCOOL JUNCTION     40.70N 97.60W
05/12/2011  E0.88 INCH       YORK               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE ROAD WITH ONE TO
            TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

REED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
733 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             2 N FAIRMONT            40.66N 97.58W
05/12/2011  E1.50 INCH       FILLMORE           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

REED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
743 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             S EXETER                40.64N 97.45W
05/12/2011  E3.00 INCH       FILLMORE           NE   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FILLMORE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTING 3 INCH HAIL
            ONE HALF MILE SOUTH OF EXETER.

0735 PM     HAIL             1 NW EXETER             40.65N 97.46W
05/12/2011  E1.50 INCH       FILLMORE           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

REED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
746 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

NEZ085-086-130115-
NUCKOLLS NE-WEBSTER NE-
746 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WEBSTER AND
NORTHWESTERN NUCKOLLS COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 742 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF LAWRENCE...OR 29 MILES SOUTH OF
HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LAWRENCE...
  COWLES...
  ROSEMONT...
  BLUE HILL...

LAT...LON 4015 9802 4013 9846 4034 9860 4035 9815
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 139DEG 21KT 4019 9827

EWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
747 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             3 E BRADSHAW            40.88N 97.69W
05/12/2011  E1.50 INCH       YORK               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

REED