Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
339 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN CONTINUES TO LIE WITH THE IMPACT FELT BY THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING THROUGH.

THINGS ARE UNDERWAY AND SO FAR GOING PRETTY MUCH AS
EXPECTED...PROFILER/SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY FURTHER ONTO THE
PLAINS...CURRENTLY SET UP OVER WRN PORTIONS OF KANSAS. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SITTING OVER NC KS/NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER...WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TOWARD THE E/NE. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR AVAILABLE...SO EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE BECOMING SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE SFC
LOW SHIFTING RIGHT OVER THE CWA AND BOUNDARIES IN PLACE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES CERTAINLY REMAINS. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG THE SFC
FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL PUSHES FURTHER
INTO THE REGION.

WESTERN PORTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH
IT EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  IT
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E/NE THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING AROUND...ESP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  EXPECTING COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER /AT LEAST FOR PART OF
THE DAY/...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S.  KEPT THUNDER AT AN
ISOLATED MENTION WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA.
ONE CONCERN WILL BE WITH WINDS...WITH PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECTING THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
IN AT LEAST THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE...UPCOMING SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
DETERMINE IF THERE IS A NEED FOR A WIND ADV.

KEPT FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY DRY...AS THE CWA
SITS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
EXPECTING TO SEE CLEARING SKIES WITH THE MORE SUBSIDENT FLOW...WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. PRIMARY CONCERNS INCLUDE
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR OFF AND ON...LIKELY MAINLY NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS FORECAST WAS BASED PRIMARILY OFF A BLEND
OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z ECMWF RUN...AND THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PICTURE FOR THESE 3-4 DAYS...MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT FRI-MON WILL FEATURE A SEASONABLY ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...TO THE NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL MID
LEVEL RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
TX/OK.

STARTING THINGS OFF THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
FEATURE WEAK RIDGING...WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS...AND ANOTHER
CLOSED H5 LOW CENTERED NEAR THE WASHINGTON STATE/BRITISH COLUMBIA
BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...THE STORY FOR THE ENTIRE FRI-MON PERIOD
GENERALLY HINGES ON THE PLACEMENT OF A CLASSIC JUNE QUASI-STATIONARY
EAST-WEST FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY WANDER AROUND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DEPENDING ON THE DAY.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WITH SEVERAL...OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE PERIOD. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE 20 PERCENT POPS FOCUSED DURING MOST
PERIODS...BUT MADE A MINOR BUMP TO CHANCE 30S FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH BASED ON GFS ENSEMBLE DATA LOOKS LIKE THE OVERALL BEST
12-HOUR PRECIP RISK DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SOMEWHAT HESITANTLY LEFT OUT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH 00Z ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS MAY
ULTIMATELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS DECENT LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE/THETA-E ADVECTION FOCUSES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MUCH LESS BULLISH FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT DRY FOR
NOW. AS STATED EARLIER...FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS FOR NOW ON FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WORKING A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW...ENHANCING THE
LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM ANOTHER NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET POKING
NORTHWARD OUT OF KANSAS. ADDITIONAL WAVES PASS THROUGH BOTH SAT
NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT POPS DON/T OUTWARDLY
REFLECT IT...THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY CLASSIC JUNE PATTERN FAVORING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION VERSUS DAYTIME STORMS...EITHER VIA THE
LOW LEVEL JET OR FROM HIGH PLAINS STORMS ROLLING EASTWARD INTO THE
AREA. AS ALWAYS...A POTENTIALLY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP EVIDENT BY H7
TEMPS IN EXCESS OF +12C WILL DICTATE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
CONVECTION...AND PATTERN SUGGESTS NEBRASKA COUNTIES WILL ULTIMATELY
BE ASSIGNED HIGHER STORM CHANCES THAN KANSAS.

ALTHOUGH NO PERIOD STANDS OUT FOR A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER RISK...THE
PERSISTENCE OF 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE...ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF AMPLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF ALMOST DAILY MUCAPE VALUES OF AT
LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG...SUGGESTS THAT PERIODIC SEVERE STORM CHANCES
WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WOULD BE
RATHER SURPRISED IF THE CWA DOESN/T END UP IN AT LEAST 1 SPC SLIGHT
RISK DURING THE FRI-MON PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ALL DAYS.

IN SUMMARY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED...AND THERE ARE A BOAT LOAD OF DETAILS
TO IRON OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MADE OVERALL FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPS FRI-MON ARE FORECAST TO HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
LATE JUNE NORMALS MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 80S PREVALENT ACROSS
NEBRASKA ZONES...AND MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN NORTH CENTRAL KS.
OBVIOUSLY THE TEMPERATURE DETAILS WILL BE HEAVILY MODULATED BY THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THE
QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST FRONT WILL BE SHOVED AROUND. ALTHOUGH
USED A MODEL/GUIDANCE BLEND FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...THE 00Z ECMWF ALONE
SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTH INTO
MUCH OF THE CWA FRI-MON...SUGGESTING THAT ESPECIALLY KS ZONES COULD
SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF 90S VERSUS UPPER 80S. TIME WILL TELL. MORNING
LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S AND MID 60S EACH
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD
LIES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY...AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE FORCING BEHIND ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS OVER NC KS...WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER AND ANOTHER NORTH
THROUGH THE GENERAL AREA OF THE TERMINAL. THIS IS MAKING THE WIND
FORECAST TRICKY...BUT AM EXPECTING EASTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN THE
CASE THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY GETTING A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
THIS EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. EXACT
STARTING TIME/POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY A LITTLE DIFFICULT
TO NAIL DOWN...BUT AM EXPECTING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL AREA TO COME IN THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. OBVIOUSLY ONCE ACTIVITY ACTUALLY
STARTS THE TIMES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT/AVIATION...ADO
LONG...PFANNKUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1205 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
211200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1205 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF TENNIS BALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
TORNADOES...FOCUSES ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM RAVENNA TO
GENEVA NEBRASKA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA ON TUESDAY. A FEW MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...WITH
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE.

BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE VARIOUS...OFF AND ON
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. ALTHOUGH IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS...IT IS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM RAVENNA TO GENEVA
NEBRASKA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ADO/PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
345 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             3 SW OVERTON            40.71N 99.58W
06/20/2011  E1.50 INCH       DAWSON             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME TO PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL 2 TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
            OF OVERTON ON INTERSTATE 80.

&&

NWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
349 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

NEZ061-074-202115-
BUFFALO NE-KEARNEY NE-
349 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN KEARNEY AND BUFFALO
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 344 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEARNEY...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  KEARNEY...
  RIVERDALE...
  AMHERST...
  PLEASANTON...
  POOLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 267 AND 292.

THIS STORM MAY RAPIDLY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4100 9875 4070 9872 4070 9873 4065 9873
      4061 9917 4063 9918 4066 9918 4066 9921
      4099 9943
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 151DEG 23KT 4069 9902

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TORNADO          2 SW ELM CREEK          40.70N 99.40W
06/20/2011                   BUFFALO            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS 2 TORNADOES ON THE GROUND WITH
            DEBRIS.

&&

REED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
355 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 E ELM CREEK           40.72N 99.36W
06/20/2011                   BUFFALO            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD ON EAST SIDE OF ELM
            CREEK.

&&

REED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
356 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             OVERTON                 40.74N 99.54W
06/20/2011  E1.75 INCH       DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
358 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             3 SW OVERTON            40.71N 99.58W
06/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       DAWSON             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NWS