Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1211 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING MONDAY...AT WHICH TIME STRATUS SHOULD
BREAK WITH CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THEREAFTER. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
NEAR THE TERMINAL MAY IMPACT KGRI THROUGH 09Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH MID LATE MORNING
MONDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT BRINGING EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN -DZ AND BR
09Z-17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING
TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE UT/NV
BORDER.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SWRN BORDER OF
KS/CO...WITH A DISTINCT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL KS...JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. AS EXPECTED...THE E/SERLY FLOW
INTO THE CWA HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DP VALUES IN...INTO THE MID/UPPER
60S...AND SOME HEFTY AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  ALSO STARTING TO SEE AREAS OF CU
EXPAND...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT...BUT A
BIT OF CIN STILL REMAINS.  THE OVERALL STORY REALLY HASNT CHANGED A
WHOLE HECK OF A LOT...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASED LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW/TROUGH.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A MCS DEVELOPING
AND EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT WE MAY
ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH WOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE N/NE.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A STRONG SRLY LLJ DEVELOPS /ANYWHERE
FROM 65-75KTS SHOWN BY MODELS/...WHICH WILL AID IN EXPANDING THE
OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY.  MODELS REMAIN IN NOT TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT SHOWING INITIALLY THE MAIN FOCUS/NOSE OF THE LLJ AFFECTING
PRIMARILY ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BEFORE GRADUALLY PUSHING A BIT
FURTHER NORTH AND SHIFTING OFF SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...WHICH SHOULD
TAKE ALONG THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ALONG. VERY LARGE HAIL
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...AND TORNADOES REMAIN A CONCERN
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CWA.  STILL
EXPECTING A BUSY LATE AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THOUGH THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE NRN/WRN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AND STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
A POSSIBILITY.  FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD MONDAY...WHICH FINDS A SMALL
PORTION OF THE CWA AGAIN IN A SPC MODERATE RISK.  MODELS NOT IN TOO
BAD OF AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PICTURE...WHICH SHOWS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS
WAY OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.  BY 00Z TUESDAY...WE SEE A -STRONG FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR- LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER WRN PORTIONS OF
NEB/KS /EXACT LOCATION DEPENDS ON THE MODEL/.  WHAT WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE IN HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WE SEE TOMORROW IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE LOW ITSELF AND
FORCING WRAPPED AROUND THE BACKSIDE...CENTRAL AND ESP ERN AREAS WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THE SFC COLD FRONT/DRY LINE.  PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WORTH OF MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EITHER RIGHT ALONG THE FAR ERN FRINGE OF THE CWA OR JUST
OUTSIDE...AND WHILE THAT GENERAL IDEA REMAINS...SOME MODELS TRY TO
NUDGE IT BACK JUST A BIT FURTHER WEST.  STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN TO BE LOCATIONS BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
281...WITH ACTIVITY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THEN RESULTING MAINLY FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ITSELF.  PARAMETERS SHOW THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
A CONCERN.  WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH/IN THE AREA
TOMORROW...DONT HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
HIGHS...ANY E/W SHIFTING OF THE FRONT WOULD HAVE A NOTABLE IMPACT.
AT THIS POINT AM CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 70S IN THE WEST WITH
LOWER/MID 90S IN THE EAST.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS
ABNORMALLY DEEP AND COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CONSEQUENTLY...DAYTIME HEATING AT THE SFC IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL THESE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW...BUT SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE INTO AT
LEAST EASTERN MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO ALLOW OUR FORECAST AREA TO DRY OUT. WEDNESDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE CHALLENGING FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE AROUND THIS RIDGE AND MAY KICK OFF A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY ADD A SLIGHT POP...FORECAST MODELS
HAVE A SLIGHT HINT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FORECAST REMAINS LOW...BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT POPS GIVEN WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PASSING THROUGH.

AVIATION...18Z TAF. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD
ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CEILINGS/VISBYS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL
STORY REALLY HASNT CHANGED MUCH...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DECIDED TO GO WITH A CB
MENTION THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FROM 23-03Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL HAVE TO BETTER ADJUST THE
TIMING ONCE THE ACTIVITY ACTUALLY STARTS UP. OTHERWISE...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS/VISBYS LATER
TONIGHT WITH E/NERLY WINDS CONTINUING AT THE TERMINAL..AND KEPT
MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS GOING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...WESELY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
549 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
201200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
549 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARD WOULD BE HAIL TO SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1243 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     HAIL             CAMBRIDGE               40.28N 100.17W
06/19/2011  E1.75 INCH       FURNAS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SROSSI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1247 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 AM     HAIL             CAMBRIDGE               40.28N 100.17W
06/20/2011  E2.75 INCH       FURNAS             NE   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 TO 70 MPH.

&&

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
119 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 AM     HAIL             6 N ARAPAHOE            40.39N 99.90W
06/20/2011  E1.25 INCH       GOSPER             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
120 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     HAIL             ALDA                    40.86N 98.47W
06/20/2011  E0.75 INCH       HALL               NE   STORM CHASER

&&

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
121 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     HAIL             10 S ELWOOD             40.44N 99.86W
06/20/2011  E1.25 INCH       GOSPER             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0117 AM     HAIL             12 S ELWOOD             40.42N 99.86W
06/20/2011  E1.50 INCH       GOSPER             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SROSSI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
129 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

NEZ039-046-200700-
SHERMAN NE-VALLEY NE-
129 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VALLEY AND NORTHERN SHERMAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 126 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COMSTOCK TO MASON
CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  ORD...
  ARCADIA...
  ELYRIA...
  FORT HARTSUFF STATE PARK...
  NORTH LOUP...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4174 9875 4136 9875 4124 9921 4169 9922
      4175 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0629Z 246DEG 34KT 4160 9920 4129 9922