Wind Advisory 16, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Anderson County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

715 
WWUS74 KFWD 201743
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1243 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-210100-
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-110621T0100Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...
KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...
GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...
ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
1243 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 10 TO 20 MPH AFTER SUNSET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BOATERS SHOULD
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUT ON AREA LAKES. RESIDENTS MAY WISH TO
TAKE ACTION TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE...AND OTHER
LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT MAY BE BLOWN AROUND IN THE
STRONG WINDS.

&&

$$

351 
WWUS74 KFWD 210037
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
737 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTH TEXAS WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM...

.WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-210145-
/O.EXP.KFWD.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-110621T0100Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...
KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...
GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...
ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
737 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...



WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1110 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD FOR METROPLEX
TAF SITES. BRIEF MVFR CIGS LIKELY AT KACT IN THE EARLY MORNING
HRS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER ALL AREA TAF SITES
TONIGHT. 04Z IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DID NOT INDICATE ANY COASTAL
STRATUS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF NORTH TX...THEREFORE THINK THAT
CHANCES OF STRATUS REACHING THE METROPLEX BEFORE SUNRISE ARE LOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONSISTENTLY BRING A NARROW BAND OF SATURATION
OVER NORTH TX IN THE 10 TO 14Z TIME FRAME. THIS SATURATED LAYER IS
SHALLOW HOWEVER /LESS THAN 50 MB THICK/ AND THEREFORE THINK THAT
TURBULENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP
THIS SHALLOW LAYER SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NORTH TX...THEREFORE WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPO
GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS AT KACT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS.
OTHERWISE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HRS.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH THE METROPLEX AFTER 09Z. THIS
WOULD REQUIRE SOME WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE OR COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO
NORTH TX AFTER SUNSET. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS IS A
PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKING TO INTERACT
FAVORABLY WITH TSTMS TOMORROW NIGHT. WENT AHEAD WITH A CB APPENDED
TO THE SKY GROUP AT THE END OF THE KDFW TAF AS A HEADS UP FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.UPDATE...
HAVE RE-ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 8PM
FOR AREAS WEST OF A GAINESVILLE- CORSICANA-TEMPLE LINE AS EXTREME
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REDEVELOP. MANY WILDFIRES WERE SEEN ON
SATELLITE AROUND NORTH TEXAS TODAY...BUT NONE WERE OBSERVED
WITHIN THE CWA.

HIGHS MONDAY MAY BE A TAD COOLER THAN TODAY AS SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION.

THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN SEVERAL WEEKS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AND
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND GULF MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE MID TO LOW
90S WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.     75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011/
DRY LINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM CHILDRESS TO BIG
SPRING. WHILE A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE FOR THEM TO TRAVEL
BEFORE THEY CAN AFFECT THE CWA AND THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING OUR AREA. HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A 10 POP AND A MENTION OF
STORMS FOR THE FAR NW ZONES THIS EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN AND BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS DYNAMIC LIFT WILL ACT TO
COOL THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY...WHILE ALSO RESULTING IN
SATURATION OF PARCELS NEAR 500 MB WHERE A MEAGER AMOUNT OF MUCAPE
WOULD BE AVAILABLE. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE MORE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY VIRGA. THE
INCREASED CLOUDS AND COOLER LOW LEVELS MEAN THAT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER. STILL...HOT AND WINDY WILL BE AN
APPROPRIATE DESCRIPTION.

WITH THE STRONG TROUGH MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW...THE
DRY LINE WILL HEAD EAST AND SHOULD REACH A SPS TO ABI LINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE CIN...WITH CAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 1500J/KG
ACROSS THE NW CWA. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRY LINE...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. STORM MOTION BECOMES MORE NORTHEASTERLY
AND THUS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT ONLY THE NW ZONES.

MODELS THEREAFTER DIVERGE AND DISCREPANCIES CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO
HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES THE MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS
OKLAHOMA. NAM/GEM SHOW CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING IN OKLAHOMA AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. SHEAR PROFILES LOOK TOO
UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE SW TO SEND A MCS INTO OUR AREA EARLY
TUESDAY...AND THUS PREFER THE GFS/ECMWF FORECAST OF MOVING MONDAY
NIGHT CONVECTION OFF INTO THE OZARKS AND ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT
TO QUIETLY SLIDE SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NW ZONES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. AIR MASS WILL BECOME
LESS SHEARED BUT CONTAIN HIGH INSTABILITY...SO THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECT QPF TO AVERAGE 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH...BUT LUCK WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ONE LOCATION GETS LITTLE TO
NO RAIN WHILE OTHERS RECEIVE 2 INCHES OR MORE UNDERNEATH A SLOW
MOVING STORM. AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY...AND THUS WILL PHASE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY.

COOLER HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT UPPER HIGH BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR WEST
BY LATE WEEK. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S BY THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST WEEK...IT
DOES LOOK LIKE LESS WIND AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL JUST AS WARM. KEPT FORECAST DRY AS NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE GOOD GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH...BUT WILL
HAVE TO BE ON GUARD FOR A ROUGE NW FLOW SYSTEM. TOO EARLY TO PLAY
THAT GUESSING GAME NOW...AND POPS ARE SET AT 10 PERCENT.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  99  79  97  76 /   5   5  10  20  50
WACO, TX              80 100  79  99  75 /   0   0   5  20  50
PARIS, TX             78  96  77  92  73 /   5   5  10  40  50
DENTON, TX            79  98  77  95  73 /   5   5  20  30  50
MCKINNEY, TX          78  96  77  94  74 /   5   5  10  30  50
DALLAS, TX            81  99  80  97  77 /   5   5  10  20  50
TERRELL, TX           79  98  78  96  75 /   0   5  10  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         79 100  78  98  75 /   0   0   5  20  50
TEMPLE, TX            78 100  78  99  74 /   0   0   5  20  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78 101  77  99  71 /  10  10  20  30  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ091-092-
100>103-115>119-129>134-141>146-156>159.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
936 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-210245-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
936 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING FOR EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS WEST OF A GAINESVILLE...
CORSICANA...TEMPLE LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.