Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 418, NWS Fort Worth, TX

June 20, 2011Young County, Texas

NWS Fort Worth, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 20, 2011, 6:09 PM CDT for Young County, Texas. It was in force for 66 min. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 20, 2011, 6:09 PM CDT (23:09 UTC)
Expired: Jun 20, 2011, 7:15 PM CDT
In force: 66 min
Issued by: NWS Fort Worth, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Young County, TX

The radar

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 20, 6:48 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	6 Ssw Newcastle, TX	NEAR 578 AND 179
Jun 20, 7:13 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	Graham, TX	GRAHAM
Jun 20, 7:18 PM CDT	HAIL 1.5	Graham, TX	IN GRAHAM
Jun 20, 7:20 PM CDT	HAIL 1	Graham, TX
Jun 20, 7:22 PM CDT	HAIL 2.5	2 E Graham, TX

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 39 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 20, 3:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch PDS	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1195 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -625 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 877 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 139 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

209 
WUUS54 KFWD 202309
SVRFWD
TXC503-210015-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0418.110620T2309Z-110621T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
609 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN YOUNG COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 608 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 32
  MILES WEST OF GRAHAM...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MURRAY AROUND 635 PM...
  NEWCASTLE AROUND 700 PM...
  GRAHAM AROUND 710 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MONDAY
EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3322 9896 3328 9861 3321 9858 3296 9851
      3296 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 248DEG 26KT 3304 9909

$$


85/NH

2 follow-up statements

418 
WWUS54 KFWD 202325
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

TXC503-210015-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0418.000000T0000Z-110621T0015Z/
YOUNG TX-
625 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN YOUNG COUNTY...

AT 624 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 17 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF NEWCASTLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. TENNIS BALL SIZED 
HAIL WAS REPORTED 2 MILES NORTH OF WOODSON.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MURRAY AROUND 630 PM CDT...
  NEWCASTLE AROUND 655 PM CDT...
  GRAHAM AROUND 710 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3322 9896 3328 9861 3321 9858 3296 9851
      3296 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 255DEG 26KT 3306 9896

$$


92

129 
WWUS54 KFWD 202356
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
656 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

TXC503-210015-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0418.000000T0000Z-110621T0015Z/
YOUNG TX-
656 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN YOUNG COUNTY...

AT 656 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTH OF NEWCASTLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  5 MILES SOUTH OF NEWCASTLE AROUND 700 PM CDT...
  GRAHAM AROUND 710 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 9863 3302 9895 3322 9896 3328 9861
      3321 9858 3301 9852
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 257DEG 27KT 3311 9870

$$


92

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 20, 5:44 PM CDT, 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 20, 5:44 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
544 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.AVIATION...
NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS FORMED...LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION AND
GUIDANCE BRINGS TSRA LINE ACROSS METROPLEX IN THE 02Z/05Z TIME
FRAME WITH MOST LIKELY TIME OF ARRIVAL DFW OF 03Z. HAVE ISSUED
AMENDMENTS FOR TEMPO TSRA TO REFLECT THIS. STORMS SHOULD HAVE A
COLD POOL BY THEN SO LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE LINE
AS WELL AS ALONG IT. ONE WILD CARD THAT MAY FURTHER AFFECT
FORECASTS IS THAT HRRR IS FORECASTING REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS
LINE. THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED YET BY ALL THE GUIDANCE...BUT SHOULD
TRENDS GO THAT WAY TSRA WILL HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011/
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS
NORTH TEXAS SITS BETWEEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE
PLAINS INTO WEST TEXAS...AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE STRONG
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE. SPEEDS SHOULD
DECREASE SOME AS WE APPROACH SUNSET...THEREFORE BOTH THE WIND
ADVISORY AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8
PM.

ALL EYES WILL THEN BE PEELED AND DIRECTED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DEVELOPED BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE THE PRESENCE
OF A DRYLINE...AND HOT LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW
THIS SCENARIO TO UNFOLD SOMETIME IN THE 4 TO 6 PM TIMEFRAME JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS FURTHER S INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS INCLUDED
IN SPC DAY ONE AND DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ALONG WITH INITIAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TOMORROW MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL THEN MAKE A PUSH INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY AS SECOND SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE REGION
AROUND THE BASE OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THINKING IS THAT BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS WILL GET A GOOD HALF
INCH OF RAIN WITH SOME AREAS GETTING UPWARDS OF AN INCH.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN INDICATING A DECENT
UPPER IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. INCLUDED LOW POPS OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. BEYOND THAT IT
LOOKS LIKE 500 MB RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER NORTH TEXAS BRINGING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.    30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  95  76  95  76 /  30  30  50  20  20
WACO, TX              78  97  76  96  74 /   5  30  50  30  20
PARIS, TX             75  91  74  93  70 /  40  40  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            76  94  72  95  73 /  40  30  50  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          78  92  73  95  71 /  40  30  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  95  77 /  30  30  50  20  20
TERRELL, TX           77  94  75  96  73 /  20  30  50  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         76  97  76  96  75 /  10  30  50  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            77  98  75  96  73 /   5  20  40  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  97  71  96  72 /  30  30  50  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>103-115>119-129>134-141>146-156>159.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 20, 3:25 PM CDT, 2 hours 44 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-211145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
325 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
CORSICANA TO TEMPLE LINE.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.

92

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 20, 6:00 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     HAIL             2 SW OLNEY              33.35N  98.79W
06/20/2011  E0.75 INCH       YOUNG              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY SIZED HAIL IN OLNEY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fort Worth, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 19, 9:35 PM CDT	Red Flag Warning	FWD	Bell, Bosque, Comanche, Cooke, Coryell, Dallas and 21 more	22 hr
Jun 20, 3:35 AM CDT	Wind Advisory	FWD	Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke and 40 more	16 hr
Jun 20, 5:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Young	66 min
Jun 20, 6:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Jack, Young	46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.