Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS. STORMS MOVING OUT OF METROPLEX...AND THAT SHOULD BE THE
END OF THE PRECIP THIS EVENING. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO SLOWLY
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT. FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MORNING AND VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR KACT...GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING TSRA MAKING IT THAT FAR SOUTH
FROM IT/S CURRENT LOCATION IN THE METROPLEX. HRRR IS ONLY MODEL
THAT SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON COLD FRONT LOCATION. IT KEEPS FLOW
SOUTH AT KACT SO HAVE REMOVED THE NORTH WINDS. STRATUS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BUILD TOWARDS KACT THIS EVENING...AMENDMENTS WILL BE
REQUIRED. 84

&&

.UPDATE...
A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO FORM ON A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST.

WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
AND INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #156.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011/
...SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE
EXTEND SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO BRECKENRIDGE AND THE DRYLINE
EXTENDS FROM GAINESVILLE TO HAMILTON. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE
AT THE POINT WHERE THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE MEET...WHICH SHOULD
BE NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATEST
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP IS WEAKENING AS SYNOPTIC LIFT
APPROACHES THE AREA AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM.
CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH
WOULD INDICATE INITIATION IS CLOSE TO OCCURRING IN THE FWD CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED TO OUR NORTH...WHERE THE BEST
LIFT IS OCCURRING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND ARE
SUPPORTING CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
INFLOW...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT. A TORNADO WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS EAST AND NORTH OF A SHERMAN TO FORT
WORTH TO CANTON LINE THROUGH 10 PM. THE INITIAL THREAT WILL BE IN
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA AND THEN TRANSITION EAST
AS THE FRONT/DRYLINE SLOWLY MOVE EAST. ADDITIONAL...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATER THIS EVENING AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH BOX MAY BE NEEDED. THIS
BOX WOULD LIKELY BE A SEVERE WATCH...AS THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE WESTERN ZONES OF NORTH
TEXAS BEHIND A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT /COLD FRONT/. THIS WILL ALLOW
HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY HELP THE ONGOING
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE...WHICH IS
GOOD NEWS. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL VERY LOW NONETHELESS AND
WE'LL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 8 PM CDT.

...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY.
THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH AMPLE CAPE...SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE BOUNDARY WILL SURGE NORTHWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS LOW
LEVEL LIFT STRENGTHENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE CAP IN
PLACE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT 30 POPS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A DRY LINE WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP WEST OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH 20/30 POPS MAINLY IN
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
GUIDANCE MEMBERS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP EXPECTED...AND
THESE POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE. HOPEFULLY THESE RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NEXT WEEK COME TO FRUITION AS DROUGHT CONTINUES TO WORSEN
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

85/NH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  76  66  87  71 /  30  20  30  10  10
WACO, TX              72  84  68  88  73 /  30  20  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             61  74  62  82  68 /  40  20  40  10  10
DENTON, TX            59  72  63  86  71 /  10  20  30  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          61  72  63  84  70 /  30  20  30  10  10
DALLAS, TX            65  77  66  87  71 /  40  20  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           67  77  65  87  69 /  40  20  30  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         70  81  67  88  70 /  40  20  30  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  86  67  89  71 /  30  20  30  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  75  61  85  68 /   5  20  30  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>103-115>118-129>133-141>144-156-157.

&&

 /

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
722 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             CLEBURNE                32.35N  97.40W
04/19/2011  E2.75 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN CLEBURNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
733 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             3 NNW PARKER            32.29N  97.30W
04/19/2011  E1.25 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.25 INCH HAIL REPORTED 3 NNW OF PARKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
734 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             PARKER                  32.25N  97.28W
04/19/2011  E1.75 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 NNW OF PARKER

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
742 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             FORNEY                  32.75N  96.47W
04/19/2011  E1.00 INCH       KAUFMAN            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN FORNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
807 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             ITASCA                  32.17N  97.15W
04/19/2011  E1.00 INCH       HILL               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN ITASCA