Severe Thunderstorm Warning 518, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
654 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2011

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...EVENING THUNDER AT WACO...WIND DIRECTION.

DALLAS/FORT WORTH...

VFR WITH SCATTERED MID DECK. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST. WINDS WILL BACK A BIT ON TUESDAY...
DEPENDING ON ORIENTATION OF SURFACE RIDGE...BUT MEAGER SPEEDS
WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DIRECTION.

WACO...

CONVECTION APPROACHING WACO FROM CORYELL COUNTY. SMALL MULTI-CELL
CLUSTER COULD IMPACT AIRPORT 0045-0200Z (745-900 PM CDT). ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE STORMS...THE CONVECTION IS
LARGELY DRIVEN BY HEATING NEAR BOUNDARY...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET.

WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH BACKING WINDS RESULTING
IN NORTH FLOW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2011/
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES IS BEING
DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
MIDWEST. THIS PLACES NORTH TEXAS IN A REGION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SEPARATE A VERY HOT AIRMASS OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. BY MID AFTERNOON THIS BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM PALESTINE TO
GOLDTHWAITE...PLACING WACO IN THE HOTTER AIRMASS AND THE DALLAS-
FORT WORTH METROPLEX ON THE COOLER SIDE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT...AND THE EFFECTS IT WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES. MAIN CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WAS TO INCLUDE 20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT FOR THIS EVENING. FEEL THAT AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IN THE WESTERLIES ALOFT...SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 00Z. CONTINUED WITH THE 20
POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES BASED ON BOTH THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT AND AREAS WHERE THE LLJ WILL BECOME MOST
ESTABLISHED AND MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HIGHEST.

HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA BOUNDARY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE WARM...THOUGH MORE TOLERABLE IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S NEAR THE RED RIVER.  SIMILAR FORECAST WILL THEN
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR AREAWIDE BY THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  90  66  93  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              70  93  66  94  67 /  20  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             59  88  60  92  63 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            61  90  60  93  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          60  90  59  93  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            67  91  67  93  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           66  91  64  93  63 /  20  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         69  93  67  94  67 /  20  10  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            70  95  67  95  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  90  61  93  67 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
239 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
239 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A
COMANCHE...GLEN ROSE...WAXAHACHIE...GREENVILLE LINE TONIGHT.
STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF A BONHAM TO
ATHENS LINE TUESDAY MORNING.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS AREAS ROUGHLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN SOUTHWEST OF A BOWIE...FORT WORTH...FAIRFIELD
LINE THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THIS EVENING.

05/

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