Severe Thunderstorm Warning 381, NWS Fort Worth, TX

670 
WWUS54 KFWD 250213
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
913 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

TXC097-181-250245-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0381.000000T0000Z-110525T0245Z/
GRAYSON TX-COOKE TX-
913 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN COOKE AND GRAYSON COUNTIES...

AT 908 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE 
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM VALLEY VIEW TO DENISON...MOVING 
EAST AT 35 MPH.

GOLF BALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED BETWEEN GAINESVILLE AND WHITESBORO. 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH BLEW CARS OFF OF I-35 2 MILES NORTH OF 
VALLEY VIEW.

LAT...LON 3393 9689 3386 9686 3388 9679 3383 9676
      3385 9670 3392 9667 3389 9660 3384 9662
      3381 9651 3378 9650 3379 9642 3373 9637
      3342 9639 3340 9639 3343 9729 3359 9730
      3373 9710 3379 9710 3389 9699 3393 9699
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 271DEG 30KT 3348 9713 3376 9654

$$


25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. EXPECT A LINE OF
STORMS WEST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND
TEMPORARILY AFFECT ALL SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AND 04Z. IT APPEARS
THAT GKY AND DAL MAY NOT BE AFFECTED UNTIL ABOUT 02Z WHILE
FTW...AFW AND DFW MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 02Z. STORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 04Z AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE VERY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY SOME
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE A BIT.

A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND WEST/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011/
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION HAS BEGUN ON THE DRYLINE. AT 3 PM...THE
DRYLINE WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM FREDERICK OK TO EAST OF
ABILENE TO SONORA. THE OVERALL THINKING REGARDING THE SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT HAS NOT CHANGED AND
WILL NOT DISCUSS MUCH ABOUT IT IN THIS UPDATE. A SIGNIFICANT EVENT
WILL UNFOLD WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINING THE HAZARDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE DRYLINE BUT MAY
MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE/MCS LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST AREA WEATHER UPDATE /AWUFWD/...WATCHES...AND SPC PRODUCTS
FOR THE UPDATED TRENDS AND MESOANALYSIS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN IN THE
PLAINS TOMORROW BEFORE EJECTING EAST LATE TOMORROW. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL ALSO SLOWLY ADVANCE THROUGH THE
PLAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH INTO NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT BUT WILL STALL IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE TOMORROW
AND BOTH WILL ADVANCE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TOMORROW EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING NORTH TEXAS WEATHER AND LACK OF ANY
OTHER FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN 20 POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AND THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AND WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES OF
THE CWA.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  93  62  83  67 /  60  10   5   0   5
WACO, TX              74  95  62  87  67 /  30  20  20   0   5
PARIS, TX             70  88  58  77  61 /  50  10  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            63  88  60  82  62 /  60  10   5   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  88  59  81  62 /  60  10   5   0   5
DALLAS, TX            66  91  62  83  68 /  60  10  10   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  92  59  82  64 /  50  10  10   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         72  92  61  84  66 /  30  20  20   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  95  61  87  66 /  20  20  20   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  92  59  85  65 /  50  10   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

79/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS NORTH OF A HAMILTON...
HILLSBORO...CANTON LINE.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE TODAY...THEN SPREAD EAST DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AND BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THREATS INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS TO
70 MPH AND TORNADOES. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A LAMPASAS...TO WACO...TO
CANTON LINE. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF.

05/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
821 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     HAIL             WHITE SETTLEMENT        32.77N  97.45W
05/24/2011  E1.75 INCH       TARRANT            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
822 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     HAIL             SHERMAN                 33.63N  96.57W
05/24/2011  E2.75 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
828 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     HAIL             COPPELL                 32.95N  97.02W
05/24/2011  E1.75 INCH       DALLAS             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
834 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     HAIL             CEDAR HILL              32.58N  96.95W
05/24/2011  E1.75 INCH       DALLAS             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            AT 183 AND MOCKINGBIRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
838 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             IRVING                  32.82N  96.92W
05/24/2011  E4.25 INCH       DALLAS             TX   PUBLIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
840 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             FARMERS BRANCH          32.93N  96.90W
05/24/2011  E1.75 INCH       DALLAS             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA