River Flood Warning 12, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. EXPECT A LINE OF
STORMS WEST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST AND
TEMPORARILY AFFECT ALL SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AND 04Z. IT APPEARS
THAT GKY AND DAL MAY NOT BE AFFECTED UNTIL ABOUT 02Z WHILE
FTW...AFW AND DFW MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 02Z. STORM CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 04Z AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE VERY POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY SOME
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE A BIT.

A SOUTH WIND BETWEEN 13 AND 18 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND WEST/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011/
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION HAS BEGUN ON THE DRYLINE. AT 3 PM...THE
DRYLINE WAS LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM FREDERICK OK TO EAST OF
ABILENE TO SONORA. THE OVERALL THINKING REGARDING THE SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT HAS NOT CHANGED AND
WILL NOT DISCUSS MUCH ABOUT IT IN THIS UPDATE. A SIGNIFICANT EVENT
WILL UNFOLD WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINING THE HAZARDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE DRYLINE BUT MAY
MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE/MCS LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST AREA WEATHER UPDATE /AWUFWD/...WATCHES...AND SPC PRODUCTS
FOR THE UPDATED TRENDS AND MESOANALYSIS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW TONIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN IN THE
PLAINS TOMORROW BEFORE EJECTING EAST LATE TOMORROW. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL ALSO SLOWLY ADVANCE THROUGH THE
PLAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH INTO NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT BUT WILL STALL IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE TOMORROW
AND BOTH WILL ADVANCE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TOMORROW EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING NORTH TEXAS WEATHER AND LACK OF ANY
OTHER FORCING...WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN 20 POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AND THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AND WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES OF
THE CWA.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  93  62  83  67 /  60  10   5   0   5
WACO, TX              74  95  62  87  67 /  30  20  20   0   5
PARIS, TX             70  88  58  77  61 /  50  10  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            63  88  60  82  62 /  60  10   5   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  88  59  81  62 /  60  10   5   0   5
DALLAS, TX            66  91  62  83  68 /  60  10  10   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  92  59  82  64 /  50  10  10   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         72  92  61  84  66 /  30  20  20   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  95  61  87  66 /  20  20  20   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  92  59  85  65 /  50  10   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

79/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS NORTH OF A HAMILTON...
HILLSBORO...CANTON LINE.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE TODAY...THEN SPREAD EAST DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AND BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THREATS INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS TO
70 MPH AND TORNADOES. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A LAMPASAS...TO WACO...TO
CANTON LINE. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF.

05/

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1041 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             3 N KEENE               32.44N  97.33W
05/24/2011  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1043 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1037 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE WYLIE              33.07N  96.49W
05/24/2011  E62 MPH          COLLIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            62 MPH MEASURED WIND POWER FLASHES AND POWER OUTAGES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1051 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TORNADO          1 W CEDARVALE           32.58N  96.12W
05/24/2011                   KAUFMAN            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS BRIEF TORNADO BETWEEN KUAFMAN AND
            CEDARVALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1056 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             CLEBURNE                32.35N  97.40W
05/24/2011  E1.50 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HAIL 3/4 INCH SHORT BURSTS LASTED LESS 2 MIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1100 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     TSTM WND GST     RICHARDSON              32.95N  96.72W
05/24/2011  E65 MPH          DALLAS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WIND GUST 65 MPH WITH SHEETS OF RAIN