Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Fort Worth, TX

158 
WWUS54 KFWD 202252
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
552 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

TXC231-379-467-202330-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0302.000000T0000Z-110520T2330Z/
HUNT TX-RAINS TX-VAN ZANDT TX-
552 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR VAN ZANDT...RAINS AND HUNT COUNTIES...

AT 551 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NEYLANDVILLE AND CAMPBELL AROUND 600 PM CDT...
  COMMERCE AND WOLFE CITY AROUND 610 PM CDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 501 AND 522...
I-30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 69 AND 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3271 9566 3273 9568 3236 9572 3236 9608
      3283 9608 3284 9627 3291 9630 3335 9629
      3341 9586 3299 9586 3298 9567 3293 9566
      3272 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 225DEG 28KT 3314 9605

$$


CAVANAUGH

642 
WWUS54 KFWD 202329
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
629 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

TXC231-379-467-202339-
/O.EXP.KFWD.SV.W.0302.000000T0000Z-110520T2330Z/
HUNT TX-RAINS TX-VAN ZANDT TX-
629 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR VAN ZANDT...RAINS AND HUNT
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 630 PM CDT...

AT 629 PM CDT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING
WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE.

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE STILL 
POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3271 9566 3273 9568 3236 9572 3236 9608
      3283 9608 3284 9627 3291 9630 3335 9629
      3341 9586 3299 9586 3298 9567 3293 9566
      3272 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 225DEG 28KT 3335 9580

$$


CAVANAUGH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
430 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE COUNTIES ALONG WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE AS STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PROPAGATE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD. OTHERWISE FORECAST PACKAGE
REMAINS UNCHANGED.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011/

SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM AREA WEATHER UPDATE FORECAST
DISCUSSION /PRODUCT AWUFWD/ ISSUED AROUND 11 AM...SO WILL NOT
REHASH THE DETAILS HERE. TO ADD TO THIS DISCUSSION SOUTHERLY FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM GAINESVILLE TO NEAR
DENTON AND THEN SOUTHWEST TOWARDS WEATHERFORD AND STEPHENVILLE
INCREASED TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS OF 19Z. IF ANY
DISCRETE STORMS CAN ORGANIZE EAST OF THIS LINE THIS INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT THROUGH 00Z.
THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND GROW
UPSCALE INTO A MULTICELLULAR LINE AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST HOUR
OR SO...BUT WILL BE WATCHING ANY DISCRETE STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS
LINE CLOSELY THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD DIMINISH THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. OTHERWISE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THRU 8 PM CDT AND ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WITHIN THE WATCH WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
OUTFLOW WINDS.

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SEND THE LINE OF CONVECTION SOUTHEAST THRU THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AS WELL AS FORCE THE WEST CENTRAL TX DRYLINE EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
JUST WEST OF THE METROPLEX TOMORROW AND SHOULD BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RECOVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS. EAST OF THE DRYLINE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE...HOWEVER ONLY HAVE A MENTION OF 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
STORMS WITH AN ABSENCE OF OBVIOUS FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
DRYLINE EXPECTED TO LOSE DEFINITION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. H500
HEIGHT RISES OF 3-4 DM ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH TX TOMORROW WHICH
SHOULD FAVOR WEAK FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. IF ANY STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE WITH OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...BUT
REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...HOWEVER WEAK FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT INITIATION
AT THIS TIME.

THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS WHERE THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEST INTERSECTS THE DIFFUSE DRYLINE
BOUNDARY NEAR WICHITA FALLS. AFTER INITIATION MODELS DEVELOP A
STRONG MID LVL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY DUE TO STRONG LATENT
HEAT RELEASE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. THIS FEATURE PROPAGATES
DOWNSTREAM AND INTENSIFIES DUE TO FEEDBACK FOR THE EVENING HRS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. WHILE RAW MODEL OUTPUT IS
LIKELY WRONG REGARDING THE HUGE QPF BULLS-EYE GENERATED FROM THIS
MCS...THE INITIATION OF AN MCS WHERE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE SFC DRYLINE LOOKS REASONABLE ENOUGH. WENT AHEAD
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE METROPLEX AFTER
00Z FOR SUNDAY EVENING ANTICIPATING THE MCS WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA ON A STRONG COLD POOL.

EXTENDED...OTHERWISE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THIS MIDWEEK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THRU NORTH TX WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED TSTMS AS IT MOVES THRU THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  91  73  87  71 /  40  10  10  20  30
WACO, TX              70  95  74  91  73 /  40  20  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             68  85  69  84  68 /  60  10  10  20  20
DENTON, TX            61  87  72  86  69 /  40   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          66  87  72  86  70 /  40  10  10  20  30
DALLAS, TX            70  91  73  86  72 /  40  10  10  20  30
TERRELL, TX           71  89  71  88  70 /  50  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         73  90  73  89  72 /  60  20  20  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  91  72 /  50  20  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  90  69  87  70 /  20   5  10  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-211200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
252 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNSET. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS EACH DAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED THROUGH SUNSET FOR
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS.

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
452 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

TXZ157-202215-
CORYELL TX-
452 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN CORYELL COUNTY

AT 452 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF FORT HOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COPPERAS COVE...FORT
GATES...GATESVILLE AND MOTHER NEFF STATE PARK.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3107 9791 3132 9808 3153 9756 3132 9742
      3129 9748
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 243DEG 23KT 3128 9776

82/JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
501 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     HAIL             LUCAS                   33.08N  96.58W
05/20/2011  M1.50 INCH       COLLIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
507 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             EVANT                   31.47N  98.15W
05/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       HAMILTON           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
518 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             COPPERAS COVE           31.13N  97.92W
05/20/2011  E0.88 INCH       CORYELL            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
518 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

TXZ147-161-202245-
FREESTONE TX-LIMESTONE TX-
518 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  FREESTONE COUNTY
  LIMESTONE COUNTY

AT 517 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF TEAGUE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OCCURRING IN THESE
COUNTIES.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FAIRFIELD...GROESBECK...
MEXIA...TEAGUE...WORTHAM AND FORT PARKER STATE PARK.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3155 9595 3138 9631 3137 9632 3129 9646
      3157 9683 3189 9630
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 215DEG 28KT 3148 9629

82/JLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
523 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     FLOOD            BONHAM                  33.58N  96.18W
05/20/2011                   FANNIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            STREET FLOODING ON HWY 56 JUST SOUTH OF BONHAM