Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

.AVIATION...
VERY CHALLENGING TAF PERIOD CONTINUES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND MODE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND
WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A SECOND LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW
DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM BOWIE TO MINERAL WELLS TO SAN SABA.
IF THIS LINE OF STORMS HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...IT
WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES AROUND 20-21Z. IF THE STORMS DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE TAF SITES...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP WEST OF THE TAF SITES AND COULD IMPACT THE TAF
SITES BY THE EVENING HOURS. FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IT WILL BE
WAIT-AND-SEE WITH MULTIPLE TAF AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY VCTS AT THE TAF SITES FROM
20/20-21/00Z WITH A CB MENTION THROUGH 02Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY BUT MAY TEMPORARILY BECOME WESTERLY WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT SCOUR OUT TONIGHT WITH THE
DRYLINE STILL WEST OF THE TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY 13-14Z...ANY STRATUS WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF ALL
TAF SITES AND VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011/
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE CAP HAS BEEN LIFTING DURING THE
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WILL INCREASE THE HAIL THREAT
TODAY/TONIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE LOCATED FROM VERNON TO BIG
SPRING CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AT 24 KNOTS...AND IT SHOULD REACH
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME NEAR 5 AM. AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES...THE LLVL JET WILL WEAKEN AND THE LINE SHOULD DEVELOP
BREAKS/SPLITS AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. DRY LINE WILL STOP ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION NEAR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT STORM
GENERATED COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH CONVECTION EAST ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS INTO THE EVENING.

ON SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE
EAST...AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
FRONT BACKS UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND BY AFTERNOON IS ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST JUST WEST OF YOUNG COUNTY...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR MORE STORM CHANCES.

SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF LOW
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST ACROSS KANSAS BRINGING ANOTHER DRY LINE PUSH AND A
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS THEN SHOW RIDGING DEVELOPING
THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN STATES...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  70  86  72  88 /  70  50  10  10  20
WACO, TX              89  70  88  75  88 /  50  40  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             79  69  83  68  82 /  70  70  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            84  68  86  69  87 /  70  50  10  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  69  84  70  85 /  70  50  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            85  70  86  72  87 /  70  50  10  10  20
TERRELL, TX           84  69  84  73  85 /  70  60  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         87  69  86  74  86 /  60  50  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            88  69  88  73  88 /  50  40  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  62  87  69  88 /  60  30  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

82/69

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-210815-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
312 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
OVER THE SAME LOCATION MULTIPLE TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS EACH DAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
231 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             1 SW PLANO              33.01N  96.73W
05/20/2011  E0.88 INCH       COLLIN             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DALLAS NORTH TOLLWAY AND GEORGE BUSH TURNPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
234 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             ADDISON                 32.95N  96.82W
05/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       DALLAS             TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN ADDISON JUST OFF OF THE TOLLWAY

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>