Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT EXTENDED
FROM JUST SOUTH OF ABILENE...TO NORTH OF BRECKENRIDGE AND BOWIE
AS OF 20Z. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE STRONG CAPES...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THERE WILL
ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WHERE WE SEE TRAINING.
ALTHOUGH WE DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...HAVE MENTIONED
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORM TRAINING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A DRY LINE PUSHES EAST INTO NORTH TEXAS
MONDAY...AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST PLACED 10 PERCENT POPS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST...AND WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOK
LOW AND HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  87  64  84  62 /  40  30  20  20  30
WACO, TX              72  90  66  89  64 /  20  30  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             66  83  62  79  61 /  50  60  40  30  50
DENTON, TX            69  87  58  81  56 /  40  30  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          69  86  62  79  59 /  40  40  30  20  40
DALLAS, TX            70  88  65  83  62 /  40  30  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           69  86  66  82  62 /  30  40  30  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         69  87  67  86  64 /  20  40  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  67  91  62 /  20  30  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  89  58  85  53 /  40  20  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ100-101-115-116-129-130-141>143.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
318 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
318 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS...BUT AREAS NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO ENNIS TO EMORY
LINE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS THAT SAW SOAKING RAINS
YESTERDAY MAY EXPERIENCE WATER ISSUES RANGING FROM NUISANCE
PONDING TO FLASH FLOODING IF SUSTAINED HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AGAIN
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT EACH DAY.

THE DRY LINE MAY REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN STRONG WEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 20 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL POSSIBLY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY INITIALLY NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE
TO ENNIS TO EMORY LINE...AND IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
317 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

TXZ115-129-242045-
STEPHENS TX-EASTLAND TX-
317 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN EASTLAND COUNTY
  STEPHENS COUNTY

AT 317 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF CISCO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BRECKENRIDGE...CISCO...
EASTLAND...RANGER...CRYSTAL FALLS...GUNSIGHT AND NECESSITY.

ON ITS PRESENT COURSE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED FOR STEPHENS AND EASTLAND COUNTIES SOON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3290 9911 3296 9903 3294 9859 3232 9859
      3228 9910
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 228DEG 30KT 3259 9932

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
447 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

TXZ116-242215-
PALO PINTO TX-
447 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 446 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF BRECKENRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PALO
PINTO...GRAFORD...MINERAL WELLS AND POSSUM KINGDOM STATE PARK.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PATH...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
WILL BE ISSUED FOR AREAS OF PALO PINTO COUNTY. THIS STORM HAS
PRODUCED CONSTANT LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL IN STEPHENS COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3295 9856 3295 9842 3301 9841 3300 9805
      3251 9806 3251 9857
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 253DEG 24KT 3273 9873