Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
756 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...STORMS AND LOW CEILINGS.

BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF METRO TERMINALS. INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST...BUT
THE LINE MAY MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS TO THE EAST...IMPACTING METRO
TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING. HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH ANY STORMS THAT AFFECT TERMINALS. DEPARTURES/ARRIVALS TO/FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED
THIS EVENING.

FWS VWP AND FWD RAOB SHOWING SOUTH WINDS OF 35-40KTS AT 2-3KFT
AGL. REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF STORMS WILL DISRUPT LLJ ENOUGH TO DELAY
ARRIVAL OF STRATUS TONIGHT. PUSHED BACK ARRIVAL AN HOUR WITH 00Z
ISSUANCE.

SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF CIGS AND THUNDER ON SUNDAY...WITH STRATUS
MAKING ANOTHER RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY PASS METRO TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY. HAVE NOT
INTRODUCED THIS IN TAFS...BUT PUBLIC GRIDDED FORECAST CURRENTLY
INDICATES THIS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS FOR FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 20Z...THE FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF AN ADA OKLAHOMA...WICHITA FALLS...THROCKMORTON...
SWEETWATER LINE. LOCAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS DECREASING AND SATELLITE SHOWS BUILDING
CUMULUS FIELDS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z. THE MEAN STORM MOTION SHOULD BE EAST
NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS. GIVEN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S...DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND CAPES
3000-4000 J/KG...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL...NAM...AND WRF INDICATE THAT
THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE METROPLEX BEFORE STALLING...WHEREAS
THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. HAVE BROUGHT THE FRONT
TO NEAR THE METROPLEX TONIGHT...AND THEN LIFTED IT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST AGAIN SUNDAY MAYBE MOVING TO NEAR
A BONHAM...DALLAS... COMANCHE LINE BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERWARD...EXPECT THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH TO MOVE EAST...WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  84  70  86  66 /  50  40  40  30  30
WACO, TX              72  89  72  89  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             68  83  66  82  63 /  40  40  40  50  40
DENTON, TX            66  81  68  86  61 /  60  50  40  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          68  83  70  83  63 /  50  40  40  30  40
DALLAS, TX            69  86  71  87  67 /  50  40  40  30  30
TERRELL, TX           71  84  69  84  67 /  30  30  30  30  40
CORSICANA, TX         72  88  70  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  71  87  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  83  67  91  58 /  60  50  40  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
316 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
COMANCHE TO CLEBURNE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN.

THE DRY LINE MAY REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

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