Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2011
Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this special weather statement at Jul 12, 2011, 1:12 PM MST for Apache County, Arizona. It was in force for 18 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 12, 2011, 1:12 PM MST (20:12 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 12, 2011, 1:30 PM MST
- In force
- 18 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
County Apache County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 181 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 209 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 371 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -10 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 824 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 8 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 57 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 12, 9:00 AM MST, 4 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 9:00 AM MST, 4 hours 12 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 900 AM MST TUE JUL 12 2011 .SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH AND EASTWARD. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK OVER ARIZONA DURING THE WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO RETURN. && .DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING MORNING HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL PLACE ARIZONA UNDER A DRYING AND STABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATED THAT THE DRYING PLUME HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SO EVEN IF MOISTURE LINGERS... CAPPING WARM AIR ALOFT WILL INHIBIT MOST ACTIVITY EXCEPT FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH AND EASTWARD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BYE-BYE MONSOON...AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW DRY AND VERY STABLE AIR SWEEPING OVER THE NORTHLAND...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO THE AREA OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE...BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY....MODELS INDICATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION AND ALLOW MOISTURE BACK INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH. IF THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS SCATTERED... MAINLY DAYTIME STORMS...WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-BKN120 SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA. AFTER 18Z...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF A KPGA-KFLG-KPAN LINE. WEST OF THIS LINE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS...MAINLY EASTERN AZ. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && PUBLIC..................MCCOLLUM/DL AVIATION................MAS/JJ FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 12, 11:43 AM MST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1143 AM MST TUE JUL 12 2011 AZZ004>018-037>040-130130- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 1143 AM MST TUE JUL 12 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE COLORADO RIVER. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 12, 1:12 PM MST, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 112 PM MST TUE JUL 12 2011 AZZ011-040-122030- APACHE AZ- 112 PM MST TUE JUL 12 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR... CENTRAL APACHE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA UNTIL 130 PM MST AT 102 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WIDE RUINS...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. HAIL RANGING FROM ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER TO PENNY-SIZED AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ROUTE 191 BETWEEN CHAMBERS AND KLAGETOH... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION OR YOU HEAR THUNDER...MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR AN ALL METAL VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3551 10958 3547 10933 3530 10941 3535 10962 TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 194DEG 21KT 3541 10949 KD
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 10:05 AM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 3 hr |
| Jul 12, 11:25 AM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Navajo | 95 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2011Every special weather statement in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.