Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

246 
WGUS75 KFGZ 121737
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1037 AM MST TUE JUL 12 2011

AZC017-122000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-110712T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NAVAJO AZ-
1037 AM MST TUE JUL 12 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM MST FOR WEST
CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY...

AT 1028 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE AREA 5 TO 
15 MILES NORTH OF HEBER...ESPECIALLY BLACK CANYON. RADAR RAINFALL 
ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE PAST HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 
OTHER DRAINAGES AFFECTED INCLUDE BROOKBANK CANYON AND PIERCE WASH AS 
WELL AS PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 377.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS COUNTRY ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 11069 3484 11036 3451 11045 3447 11054
      3449 11070

$$

MCCOLLUM

291 
WGUS75 KFGZ 121910
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1210 PM MST TUE JUL 12 2011

AZC017-122000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-110712T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NAVAJO AZ-
1210 PM MST TUE JUL 12 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM MST FOR WEST
CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY...

AT 1202 PM MST...FLASH FLOODING FROM VERY HEAVY RAIN IS STILL LIKELY 
OVER THE WARNED AREA. THE WARNING AREA IS FOR RURAL AREAS EAST OF 
377 SOUTHWEST OF JOSEPH CITY...AND INCLUDES THE BLACK CANYON AREA. 

A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR HOLBROOK AND HEBER 
AND FOR ROUTE 377 BETWEEN THOSE TWO COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
BLACK CANYON...BROOKBANK CANYON...AND CLEAR CREEK.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 11069 3484 11036 3451 11045 3447 11054
      3449 11070

$$

KD

995 
WGUS75 KFGZ 122000
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
100 PM MST TUE JUL 12 2011

AZC017-122010-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-110712T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NAVAJO AZ-
100 PM MST TUE JUL 12 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WEST CENTRAL NAVAJO
COUNTY...

HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED IN THE WARNING AREA OVER RURAL WEST CENTRAL 
NAVAJO COUNTY...AND THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS NO 
LONGER ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. 

LAT...LON 3487 11069 3484 11036 3451 11045 3447 11054
      3449 11070

$$

KD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST TUE JUL 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH AND EASTWARD. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
BACK OVER ARIZONA DURING THE WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EXPECTED TO RETURN.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS BUILDING ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING MORNING HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL
PLACE ARIZONA UNDER A DRYING AND STABILIZING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATED THAT THE
DRYING PLUME HAD MOVED INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SO EVEN IF MOISTURE LINGERS...
CAPPING WARM AIR ALOFT WILL INHIBIT MOST ACTIVITY EXCEPT FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTH AND EASTWARD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BYE-BYE MONSOON...AT LEAST FOR A FEW
DAYS. MODELS SHOW DRY AND VERY STABLE AIR SWEEPING OVER THE
NORTHLAND...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO THE AREA OF THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE...BREEZY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY....MODELS INDICATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD WESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION AND ALLOW MOISTURE
BACK INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH. IF THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS
SCATTERED... MAINLY DAYTIME STORMS...WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-BKN120 SKIES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 18Z...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA. AFTER 18Z...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF A KPGA-KFLG-KPAN LINE.
WEST OF THIS LINE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE
TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH
MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS...MAINLY EASTERN
AZ. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

PUBLIC..................MCCOLLUM/DL
AVIATION................MAS/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
640 PM MST MON JUL 11 2011

AZZ004>018-037>040-120200-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
640 AM MST MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.