Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

508 
WWUS55 KFGZ 112042
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
142 PM MST SUN SEP 11 2011

AZC005-112052-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-110911T2045Z/
COCONINO AZ-
142 PM MST SUN SEP 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 145 PM MST...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF DESERT VIEW AT THE GRAND CANYON HAS 
WEAKENED. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3644 11165 3631 11146 3605 11176 3613 11189
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 217DEG 36KT 3635 11161

$$

MCCOLLUM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
924 AM MST SUN SEP 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 915 AM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY EAST OF A PRESCOTT
TO PAGE LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
WEST OF THIS LINE. A CUTOFF LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW.
ONE DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL WIND SPEED MAX WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT CAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME
STRONG OR SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL. NO FORECAST
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL EXAMINE THE MORNING
MODEL DATA TO DETERMINE IF RAIN CHANCES NEED TO BE RAISED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD ARIZONA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER ARIZONA AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WITH AT LEAST WEAK WIND SHEAR
CONTINUING AND COOL TEMPERATURES AT THE MID LEVELS...WILL CONSIDER
RAISING RAIN CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST FOR THE MON-WED PERIOD.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS ARIZONA AND MOVE
EASTWARD. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAYTIME STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY THEN DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING ENHANCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY. SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING HAIL OVER AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 40-50 KT. STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE...BUT NOT
END...TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC..................JJ / DL
AVIATION................MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
612 AM MST SUN SEP 11 2011

AZZ004>018-037>040-120700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
612 AM MST SUN SEP 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND OR WIND GUSTS OVER
58 MPH. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL PERSIST FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1216 PM MST SUN SEP 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 NE FLAGSTAFF          35.25N 111.54W
09/11/2011                   COCONINO           AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WITH DEBRIS ACROSS ROADS IN
            HUTCHISON ACRES AND TIMBERLINE ESTATES

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100243

JJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
110 PM MST SUN SEP 11 2011

AZZ006-009-012-112030-
COCONINO AZ-
110 PM MST SUN SEP 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 130 PM MST

AT 103 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DESERT VIEW AT GRAND CANYON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN CAUSING RAPID
RUNOFF ALONG THE WALLS AND SIDE CANYONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND STORMS APPROACH...TAKE SHELTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3638 11174 3628 11153 3601 11183 3606 11192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 212DEG 24KT 3611 11183

MCCOLLUM