Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Grand Forks, ND

June 3, 2011Barnes County, Steele County, Traill County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 3, 2011, 2:34 AM CDT for Barnes County, Steele County, Traill County, North Dakota. It was in force for 28 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 3, 2011, 2:34 AM CDT (07:34 UTC)
Expired: Jun 3, 2011, 3:02 AM CDT
In force: 28 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Barnes County, ND, Steele County, ND, Traill County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 3, 1:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	4 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 218 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2239 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -143 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1718 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 88 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 2 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

185 
WUUS53 KFGF 030734
SVRFGF
NDC003-091-097-030815-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0024.110603T0734Z-110603T0815Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
234 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BARNES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...
  SOUTHERN STEELE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...
  WEST CENTRAL TRAILL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 315 AM CDT

* AT 232 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF ROGERS...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF VALLEY CITY...MOVING TO
  THE NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SIBLEY AND LUVERNE AROUND 245 AM CDT.
  PILLSBURY AROUND 250 AM CDT.
  HOPE AND BLABON AROUND 300 AM CDT.
  SHERBROOKE AROUND 305 AM CDT.

THEREAFTER SOME OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
INCLUDE ROSEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4724 9807 4724 9796 4732 9796 4757 9756
      4746 9736 4701 9806 4710 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0734Z 225DEG 45KT 4713 9808
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

GROCHOCINSKI

2 follow-up statements

825 
WWUS53 KFGF 030749
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
249 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

NDC003-030758-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-110603T0815Z/
BARNES ND-
249 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BARNES COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4757 9756 4746 9736 4724 9771 4724 9795
      4724 9796 4732 9796
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 225DEG 45KT 4724 9788

$$

NDC091-097-030815-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-110603T0815Z/
STEELE ND-TRAILL ND-
249 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
TRAILL AND SOUTHERN STEELE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL
315 AM CDT...

AT 245 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THE STORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES
EAST OF SIBLEY...OR 21 MILES NORTH OF VALLEY CITY...MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HOPE AND BLABON AROUND 300 AM CDT.
  SHERBROOKE AROUND 305 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4757 9756 4746 9736 4724 9771 4724 9795
      4724 9796 4732 9796
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 225DEG 45KT 4724 9788

$$

GROCHOCINSKI

766 
WWUS53 KFGF 030802
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
302 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

NDC091-097-030812-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-110603T0815Z/
STEELE ND-TRAILL ND-
302 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL TRAILL AND
SOUTHERN STEELE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4757 9756 4746 9736 4724 9771 4724 9795
      4724 9796 4732 9796
TIME...MOT...LOC 0802Z 225DEG 45KT 4735 9768

$$

GROCHOCINSKI

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 3, 2:15 AM CDT, 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 3, 2:15 AM CDT, 19 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
215 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. COMPLEX WITH STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS (60-90MPH)
LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE FA (JUST WEST OF JAMESTOWN). MID-LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT SO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE
DEFINITELY DOES EXIST. THIS COMPLEX EXPECTED TO RIDE MID-LEVEL
CAPPING...WHICH WOULD PUT IN ON A PATH FROM JMS-GFK-BDE (WHERE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED). MUCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR NR 50 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THIS AREA.

SFC TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE VALLEY 12Z...AND ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FA AROUND 21Z. THINK THAT WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL
PREVENT MUCH RE-DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND THAT
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE VALLEY AFTER 18Z.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN CURRENT EXPECTED SPEED OF SFC
TROUGH. HOWEVER...IF THIS TIMING SLOWS THAN THE FAR EAST COULD
HAVE A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST BEHIND SFC TROUGH AND STRONGER. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NW FA WHERE 850MB SPEEDS ARE NR 35 KNOTS.
GIVEN WINDS ALOFT...THINK SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS COOL TODAY...WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
70S...POSSIBLY NR 80F.

UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS CANADA ON SATURDAY...SENDING A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN FA. ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WITH SFC CONVERGENCE. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THUR)...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE WARMER WEATHER
DURING THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WEST OF THE VALLEY...AND THEN CHANCES
INCREASE AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST TAF SITES
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
BE VFR...WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THUNDER RE-DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR KBJI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

TG/GRG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 2, 4:38 AM CDT, 21 hours 56 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
438 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-031200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
438 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THIS EVENING...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL AND TIMING WITH THIS
COMPLEX IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

TG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 3, 2:11 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Griggs, Steele	64 min
Jun 3, 2:32 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Eddy, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Ramsey and 1 more	58 min
Jun 3, 3:12 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Nelson	48 min
Jun 3, 3:30 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier, Grand Forks, Nelson, Pembina, Walsh	60 min
Jun 3, 3:39 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Pembina, Walsh	51 min
Jun 3, 4:23 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Pembina	24 min
Jun 3, 4:32 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Nelson, Pembina, Walsh	6 hr
Jun 3, 6:54 AM CDT	Wind Advisory	FGF	Benson, Cavalier, Ramsey, Towner, Walsh	14 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.