Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Grand Forks, ND

757 
WWUS53 KFGF 030819
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
319 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

NDC005-027-035-039-063-071-099-030830-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-110603T0830Z/
BENSON ND-EDDY ND-GRAND FORKS ND-GRIGGS ND-NELSON ND-RAMSEY ND-
WALSH ND-
319 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WALSH...
EASTERN RAMSEY...NELSON...NORTHWESTERN GRAND FORKS...NORTHEASTERN
EDDY AND SOUTHEASTERN BENSON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND
NORTHEASTERN GRIGGS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 330 AM
CDT...

AT 313 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR EDMORE TO LARIMORE...MOVING 
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. ALSO A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT 
FOR NELSON COUNTY.  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LANKIN...INKSTER AND HONEYFORD AROUND 325 AM CDT.
  PARK RIVER...VOSS AND VESELEYVILLE AROUND 330 AM CDT.

THEREAFTER SOME OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDE FORDVILLE...FAIRDALE...ADAMS...PISEK...JOHNSTOWN AND FOREST
RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEEK SHELTER IN A REINFORCED
BUILDING IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4854 9838 4854 9784 4816 9722 4758 9810
      4792 9888
TIME...MOT...LOC 0818Z 210DEG 51KT 4847 9842 4796 9757

$$

HOPPES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
215 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. COMPLEX WITH STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS (60-90MPH)
LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE FA (JUST WEST OF JAMESTOWN). MID-LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT SO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE
DEFINITELY DOES EXIST. THIS COMPLEX EXPECTED TO RIDE MID-LEVEL
CAPPING...WHICH WOULD PUT IN ON A PATH FROM JMS-GFK-BDE (WHERE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED). MUCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR NR 50 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THIS AREA.

SFC TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE VALLEY 12Z...AND ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FA AROUND 21Z. THINK THAT WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL
PREVENT MUCH RE-DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND THAT
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE VALLEY AFTER 18Z.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN CURRENT EXPECTED SPEED OF SFC
TROUGH. HOWEVER...IF THIS TIMING SLOWS THAN THE FAR EAST COULD
HAVE A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST BEHIND SFC TROUGH AND STRONGER. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NW FA WHERE 850MB SPEEDS ARE NR 35 KNOTS.
GIVEN WINDS ALOFT...THINK SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS COOL TODAY...WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
70S...POSSIBLY NR 80F.

UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS CANADA ON SATURDAY...SENDING A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN FA. ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WITH SFC CONVERGENCE. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THUR)...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE WARMER WEATHER
DURING THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WEST OF THE VALLEY...AND THEN CHANCES
INCREASE AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST TAF SITES
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY
BE VFR...WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THUNDER RE-DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR KBJI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

TG/GRG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
438 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-031200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
438 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THIS EVENING...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL AND TIMING WITH THIS
COMPLEX IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

TG