Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Grand Forks, ND

642 
WWUS53 KFGF 310150
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
850 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

NDC073-081-310201-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110531T0145Z/
RANSOM ND-SARGENT ND-
850 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN SARGENT AND
CENTRAL RANSOM COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 4621 9799 4663 9796 4662 9734 4617 9771
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 196DEG 44KT 4632 9768

$$

DTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
757 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...

WILL BE BRIEF THIS EVENING WITH IMPENDING SEVERE WEATHER. A SQUALL
LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...WITH A
HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE. EXPECT THIS LINE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT
TO BE WIND DAMAGE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW AND INSTABILITY. THE GRIDS
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...

A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...AND WILL THEN PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG CONVECTION EXIST AT
KFAR...KTVF AND KBJI AFTER 00 UTC TONIGHT. GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AFTER SURFACE TROUGH
PASSAGE...BUT CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS SEVERE THREAT LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL TUESDAY.

AS CLEARING CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN FA REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING STRONG HEATING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SURGE
NORTHWARD FROM SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SD WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL NE. INITIAL CAPPING IN WARM SECTOR
PROGGED TO COOL FROM RUC GUIDANCE BETWEEN 21-00Z. DEEP SEVERE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS E SD INTO NE TO
EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN FA PROPAGATING ENE THROUGH THE
EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NOT SURE AT THIS TIME NORTHERN EXTENT
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL HOWEVER WILL TRIM BACK ON SEVERE MENTION BASED
ON FAVORED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS TO AREAS FROM VALLEY EAST. WILL
BE CONCERN ABOUT ALL ASPECTS OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SURFACE LOW
VCNTY OF FA. WITH PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND K
INDICES IN THE 30S WILL NEED TO MONITOR EVENT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS. AS LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD COLD ADVECTION BEGINS TO
WRAP INTO SYSTEM WITH BEST COOLING ACROSS WESTERN FA WITH WARMEST
MINIMUMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN FA.

WIND PRIMARY CONCERN TUESDAY. UPPER LOW TO TRACK EAST ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA TUESDAY PUTTING FA IN PRIME AREA FOR
STRONG WINDS. GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT SET UP DEEP MIXED LAYER. MODELS SUGGEST
40 TO 50KTS TO MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONCERNS ARE CLOUD COVER
WRAPPING AROUND LOW WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING TO AN EXTENT. ALSO DUE
WESTERLY FLOW NOT FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WIND WITHIN VALLEY. FAVORED
LOCATION FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS AREAS
WEST OF VALLEY. WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ABOVE AREA AND
LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED WIND ADVISORY FOR LARGE PORTION OF
FA. WITH CLOUDS AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
SEE MINOR RECOVERY. WRAP AROUND PCPN LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO NORTH
HALF OF FA.

AS SURFACE/UPPER LOW TRACK EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH DRYING COLUMN FROM WEST TO EAST. FAR
EAST TO STAY IN LIGHT PCPN/CLOUDS AND WIND LONGEST WITH PROXIMITY
TO LOW. WILL ACTUALLY SEE RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND
WITH MIXING LOWS IN THE 40S SEEM REASONABLE.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FA WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
HOWEVER MIXING WILL BE LIGHT. WILL SEE PLENTY OF SOLAR HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR BLO AVERAGE.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PCPN MAY OFFSET STRONG
WARMING ALOFT SO TEMPERATURES MAY BY A CHALLENGE. WILL FOR NOW
MAINTAIN LOW-MID RANGE CHC POPS.

DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS SEVERE THREAT LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL TUESDAY.

AS CLEARING CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN FA REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING STRONG HEATING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SURGE
NORTHWARD FROM SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL SD WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL NE. INITIAL CAPPING IN WARM SECTOR
PROGGED TO COOL FROM RUC GUIDANCE BETWEEN 21-00Z. DEEP SEVERE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS E SD INTO NE TO
EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN FA PROPAGATING ENE THROUGH THE
EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. NOT SURE AT THIS TIME NORTHERN EXTENT
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL HOWEVER WILL TRIM BACK ON SEVERE MENTION BASED
ON FAVORED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS TO AREAS FROM VALLEY EAST. WILL
BE CONCERN ABOUT ALL ASPECTS OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SURFACE LOW
VCNTY OF FA. WITH PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND K
INDICES IN THE 30S WILL NEED TO MONITOR EVENT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS. AS LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD COLD ADVECTION BEGINS TO
WRAP INTO SYSTEM WITH BEST COOLING ACROSS WESTERN FA WITH WARMEST
MINIMUMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN FA.

WIND PRIMARY CONCERN TUESDAY. UPPER LOW TO TRACK EAST ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA TUESDAY PUTTING FA IN PRIME AREA FOR
STRONG WINDS. GOOD PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BUT SET UP DEEP MIXED LAYER. MODELS SUGGEST
40 TO 50KTS TO MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONCERNS ARE CLOUD COVER
WRAPPING AROUND LOW WHICH MAY LIMIT MIXING TO AN EXTENT. ALSO DUE
WESTERLY FLOW NOT FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WIND WITHIN VALLEY. FAVORED
LOCATION FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS AREAS
WEST OF VALLEY. WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ABOVE AREA AND
LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED WIND ADVISORY FOR LARGE PORTION OF
FA. WITH CLOUDS AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
SEE MINOR RECOVERY. WRAP AROUND PCPN LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO NORTH
HALF OF FA.

AS SURFACE/UPPER LOW TRACK EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH DRYING COLUMN FROM WEST TO EAST. FAR
EAST TO STAY IN LIGHT PCPN/CLOUDS AND WIND LONGEST WITH PROXIMITY
TO LOW. WILL ACTUALLY SEE RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND
WITH MIXING LOWS IN THE 40S SEEM REASONABLE.

HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FA WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
HOWEVER MIXING WILL BE LIGHT. WILL SEE PLENTY OF SOLAR HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR BLO AVERAGE.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PCPN MAY OFFSET STRONG
WARMING ALOFT SO TEMPERATURES MAY BY A CHALLENGE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES...
BOTH SHOWING A WEST COAST TROUGH AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY RIDGE. THIS
WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING
MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE STRONGEST OF
THESE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP POPS AT 30
PERCENT GIVEN TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY. MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REACH THE 70S
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND 50S FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     NDZ014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

DK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-312030-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
320 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM NE SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LISBON TO MAYVILLE TO GRAND FORKS TO
ROSEAU.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. WINDS MAY
BE 30 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN AND POINTS SOUTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND WILL BE
MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
820 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     GWINNER                 46.22N 97.66W
05/30/2011  M68 MPH          SARGENT            ND   AWOS

&&

MEWENS