Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Grand Forks, ND

141 
WWUS53 KFGF 010947
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
447 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

MNC027-111-167-NDC077-011015-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-110801T1015Z/
RICHLAND ND-CLAY MN-OTTER TAIL MN-WILKIN MN-
447 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CLAY
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND WILKIN AND NORTHWESTERN OTTER
TAIL COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND NORTHERN RICHLAND
COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

AT 444 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 5 MILES WEST OF ROLLAG TO 6 MILES EAST OF BRUSHVALE TO 3 MILES
SOUTH OF MOORETON...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE
HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WAHPETON AND BRECKENRIDGE AROUND 455 AM CDT.
  ROTHSAY AND EVERDELL AROUND 505 AM CDT.
  FOXHOME AND DORAN AROUND 510 AM CDT.
  PELICAN RAPIDS...ERHARD AND CARLISLE AROUND 515 AM CDT.

THE STRONGEST CORE OF THE WINDS IS FORECAST TO STAY BETWEEN WAHPETON 
AND ROTHSAY.  

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 29...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN...MILE MARKERS 18 AND 20...

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 94...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN
MINNESOTA MILE MARKER 28 AND MINNESOTA MILE MARKER 49...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4625 9711 4663 9683 4664 9678 4667 9680
      4679 9671 4658 9603 4605 9630
TIME...MOT...LOC 0946Z 307DEG 23KT 4670 9633 4638 9650
          4622 9687

$$

DTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
244 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

.UPDATE...HAVE ADDED HEAT ADVISORY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COOPERSTOWN/HILLSBORO/DETROIT LAKES AND FERGUS FALLS LINE AS
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SHORT TERM CONVECTION
POTENTIAL/HEAVY RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD HOWEVER GFS PERFORMING BEST WITH NEAR
TERM SFC AND MOISTURE FIELDS AND WILL USE FOR DETAILS.

LINE OF DEEP/SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ENE WITH MAIN BAND ACROSS NORTHERN FA AND
FAR SE ND. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE IN SOME FORM AND WILL ORIENT
HIGHEST POPS THIS AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY COULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN
CONVECTION MID/LATE MORNING AS SHORTWAVE EXITS FA TO THE EAST.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE GREATLY ON WARM FRONTAL POSITION
AND DEGREE OF PERSISTING CLOUD COVER. WILL COMPROMISE WITH
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

SURFACE LOW TO TRACK ALONG ND/SD BORDER AREA
TO TODAY REACHING NE SD BY EVENING WITH E/W FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ROUGHLY BISECTING FA. FAVORED POSITION FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY ACROSS E CENTRAL ND EASTWARD INTO
NW/WEST CENTRAL MN. JUST HOW CURRENT CONVECTION WILL LAY OUT LATE
AFTERNOON BOUNDARIES WILL MAKE ANY FURTHER REFINEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE OF A CHALLENGE THAT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR. SEVERE THREAT WILL CERTAINLY EXIST WITH MOISTURE
RICH/ POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION PERSISTS. HEAVY RAIN FALL WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES A
HEALTHY +3 STANDARD DEVIATION. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
BETWEEN 2.5-3.5 INCHES. FEEL MAJORITY OF FUTURE CONVECTION WILL BE
EAST OF CURRENT PCPN SO AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED ON HOW CURRENT CONVECTION
PANS OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL PROPAGATE EAST OVERNIGHT TO FAR WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYING TO SW MN TAKING
PCPN WITH IT BY MORNING. EXPECT MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION EAST OF
VALLEY REGION BY MIDNIGHT EXITING FA BY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER COLUMN WILL MOVE INTO FA TUESDAY
FOR DRY PERIOD INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE.

MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS MID WEEK INTO MORE ZONAL PATTERN. WEAK
WAVE SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT FA THURSDAY FOR NEXT
CHANCE OF PCPN.

MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT FA UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO WESTERN MN
THIS AM. VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE STRONG STORMS
EXPECTED FROM VALLEY EASTWARD TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ002-003-027-029-030-040.

&&

VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-010945-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
AFTER 7 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO GET ORGANIZED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A COMPLEX OR TWO OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE VERY
WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DTR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
216 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FORT TOTTEN             47.98N 98.99W
08/01/2011                   BENSON             ND   OTHER FEDERAL

            TREES UPROOTED IN TOWN.

&&

JR