Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Grand Forks, ND

883 
WWUS53 KFGF 010849
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
349 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

MNC027-167-NDC003-017-073-077-010915-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-110801T0915Z/
BARNES ND-CASS ND-RANSOM ND-RICHLAND ND-CLAY MN-WILKIN MN-
349 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CLAY
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWESTERN WILKIN COUNTY IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND NORTHERN RICHLAND...NORTHEASTERN
RANSOM...CASS AND EAST CENTRAL BARNES COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 344 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARWOOD TO 4 MILES WEST OF DAVENPORT TO 6
MILES WEST OF LEONARD...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. PENNY SIZE
HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  KINDRED...KRAGNES AND WEST FARGO AROUND 355 AM CDT.
  FARGO...HORACE AND FELTON AROUND 400 AM CDT.
  MOORHEAD...DILWORTH AND AVERILL AROUND 405 AM CDT.
  GLYNDON...RUSTAD AND WALCOTT AROUND 410 AM CDT.

THEREAFTER SOME OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDE REILE'S ACRES...NORTH RIVER...PRAIRIE ROSE...OXBOW...FRONTIER
AND BARRIE.

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 29...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN...MILE MARKERS 31 AND 72...

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 94...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN
NORTH DAKOTA MILE MARKER 344 AND MINNESOTA MILE MARKER 11...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4715 9639 4642 9676 4627 9709 4689 9783
      4716 9758 4715 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 0849Z 319DEG 33KT 4697 9688 4669 9710
          4660 9732

$$

DTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
244 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

.UPDATE...HAVE ADDED HEAT ADVISORY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COOPERSTOWN/HILLSBORO/DETROIT LAKES AND FERGUS FALLS LINE AS
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SHORT TERM CONVECTION
POTENTIAL/HEAVY RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD HOWEVER GFS PERFORMING BEST WITH NEAR
TERM SFC AND MOISTURE FIELDS AND WILL USE FOR DETAILS.

LINE OF DEEP/SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ENE WITH MAIN BAND ACROSS NORTHERN FA AND
FAR SE ND. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE IN SOME FORM AND WILL ORIENT
HIGHEST POPS THIS AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY COULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN
CONVECTION MID/LATE MORNING AS SHORTWAVE EXITS FA TO THE EAST.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE GREATLY ON WARM FRONTAL POSITION
AND DEGREE OF PERSISTING CLOUD COVER. WILL COMPROMISE WITH
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

SURFACE LOW TO TRACK ALONG ND/SD BORDER AREA
TO TODAY REACHING NE SD BY EVENING WITH E/W FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ROUGHLY BISECTING FA. FAVORED POSITION FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY ACROSS E CENTRAL ND EASTWARD INTO
NW/WEST CENTRAL MN. JUST HOW CURRENT CONVECTION WILL LAY OUT LATE
AFTERNOON BOUNDARIES WILL MAKE ANY FURTHER REFINEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE OF A CHALLENGE THAT THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR. SEVERE THREAT WILL CERTAINLY EXIST WITH MOISTURE
RICH/ POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION PERSISTS. HEAVY RAIN FALL WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES A
HEALTHY +3 STANDARD DEVIATION. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
BETWEEN 2.5-3.5 INCHES. FEEL MAJORITY OF FUTURE CONVECTION WILL BE
EAST OF CURRENT PCPN SO AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED ON HOW CURRENT CONVECTION
PANS OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL PROPAGATE EAST OVERNIGHT TO FAR WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYING TO SW MN TAKING
PCPN WITH IT BY MORNING. EXPECT MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION EAST OF
VALLEY REGION BY MIDNIGHT EXITING FA BY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER COLUMN WILL MOVE INTO FA TUESDAY
FOR DRY PERIOD INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE.

MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS MID WEEK INTO MORE ZONAL PATTERN. WEAK
WAVE SURFACE BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT FA THURSDAY FOR NEXT
CHANCE OF PCPN.

MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT FA UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO WESTERN MN
THIS AM. VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE STRONG STORMS
EXPECTED FROM VALLEY EASTWARD TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ002-003-027-029-030-040.

&&

VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-010945-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
AFTER 7 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO GET ORGANIZED IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A COMPLEX OR TWO OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE VERY
WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DTR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
923 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

NDZ038-039-049-053-010330-
BARNES ND-CASS ND-RANSOM ND-RICHLAND ND-
923 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RICHLAND...
NORTHEASTERN RANSOM...SOUTHWESTERN CASS AND SOUTHEASTERN BARNES
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 916 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTH OF VALLEY CITY...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 30
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
KATHRYN AROUND 930 PM CDT.
LITTLE YELLOWSTONE STATE AROUND 935 PM CDT.
FORT RANSOM AROUND 940 PM CDT.
NOME AND FINGAL AROUND 945 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPEICHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
216 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FORT TOTTEN             47.98N 98.99W
08/01/2011                   BENSON             ND   OTHER FEDERAL

            TREES UPROOTED IN TOWN.

&&

JR