Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
205 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE AT THIS TIME
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT BEFORE 12Z. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR
HAS RESULTED IN EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT WATCHES COVER THE THREAT AREA AND
TIMING WELL.

THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS TO NEAR ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 345 AM EST WED NOV 16 2011/
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY
THURSDAY...AND QUICKLY PROPAGATES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
LATE FRIDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOOTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST FROM
THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN TO NORTH
GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY...THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINING A HOLD OVER THE STATE THROUGH MID WEEK WILL KEEP THE
FRONT FROM PUSHING TOO FAR INTO THE STATE. AS A RESULT...HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LATE EXTENDED PERIODS
FOR NORTH GEORGIA.

31

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT
IN BRIEF LOCAL ISSUES. NO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO METRO ATL
SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND INTO THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH ACROSS METRO SITES EARLY EVENING...23Z TO 00Z RANGE. MVFR
TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE BUT LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT 2 TO 3SM VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. WINDS ARE
ALSO A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN GUSTS TO
26KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THESE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL STAY ON THE WEST SIDE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS AND CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON ENDING OF PRECIP.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  58  30  57 /  60   5   0   0
ATLANTA         49  56  31  57 /  60   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     47  51  25  55 /  50   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  55  26  56 /  40   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        53  62  34  61 /  60   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     50  57  31  55 /  60   5   0   0
MACON           57  64  31  61 /  60   5   0   0
ROME            44  54  27  58 /  30   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  51  57  26  57 /  60   5   0   0
VIDALIA         64  68  38  63 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CLARKE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...
GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...
JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...NEWTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...
TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...LUMPKIN...
MERIWETHER...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...TALBOT...TOWNS...TROUP...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...
WHITFIELD.

&&

20

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