Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
343 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY. STAGNANT H5 PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
LETTING UP ANY TIME SOON. EVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OFFER LITTLE
HOPE. REALLY NOT MUCH TO SAY OTHER THAN DIURNAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY. A FEW STORMS WILL EXCEED
SEVERE LEVELS BUT NOT BY MUCH WITH VERY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
FOR TUES THRU WED OR THURS...THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT MORE
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK POSITIVELY
TILTED WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY TO KEEP INTENSITY DOWN...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS
WILL PROBABLY INCREASE. WAVE PROGGED TO SAG SLOWLY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING WED WHERE IT SIMPLY BECOMES A STATIONARY H5
TROF AXIS. MEAN RH PROGS INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LIFT THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THIS TROF. VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE IN ALL SHORT AND MED RANGE MODELS. IF
THIS PATTERN VERIFIES...WILL LIKELY SEE 40-60 PCT COVERAGE OF
STORMS AND A LITTLE COOLER MAX TEMPS FROM TUES ON.

USED MET/PERSISTENCE BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS AND BIAS ADJUSTED MAV/MET
BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS BASED ON RUNNING 30 DAY VERIFICATION SCORES.
LARGE MAV BIASES SEEN WITH MAX TEMPS AT AHN..RMG...GVL AND PDK.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PER REASONING ABOVE...HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN GOING FCST. LOOKS
QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF. MED RANGE MODELS DO SHOW A
LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC E-W ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE BY LATE
THIS WEEK. THIS DEEP MOISTURE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SE GA BY SAT
AND COULD SPREAD INTO THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
ALREADY MOIST PATTERN WITH WEAK STATIONARY H5 TROUGH STILL IN
PLACE AT THAT TIME...DOUBT THAT ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE
WOULD CHANGE THE FCST MUCH. BEYOND THE 7 DAY FCST...SOME HINT THAT
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD AND EXPAND...MORE SO
WITH THE 12Z GFS. BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A PATTERN BREAKER.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... CU BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE METRO AREA...WITH SOME
TSRA DEVELOPING. HAVE MOVED TEMPO TSRA TO BEGIN AT 19Z ACROSS THE
METRO SITES... BUT DELAYED IT UNTIL 20Z FOR MCN/CSG. WINDS
GENERALLY LGT AND VRB BUT FAVOR SOUTHWEST. SURFACE WEAKNESS
SHIFTING THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW WINDS TO GO BRIEFLY SOUTHEAST
ESPECIALLY AT AHN/MCN BUT SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST AGAIN TOMORROW. SOME
BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT TYPICAL SITES...ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN.
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30 FOR ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  95  71  93 /  20  40  30  40
ATLANTA         74  93  73  91 /  20  40  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     66  88  66  86 /  10  50  40  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  94  70  92 /  10  40  40  40
COLUMBUS        74  94  74  94 /  30  40  30  40
GAINESVILLE     72  93  72  90 /  20  50  40  40
MACON           70  94  71  95 /  30  30  20  30
ROME            69  95  70  94 /  10  40  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  70  92  70  92 /  30  40  30  40
VIDALIA         70  94  72  93 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
601 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040830-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
601 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO GAINESVILLE AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM CUSSETA TO MACON TO AUGUSTA.

.SYNOPSIS...
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE AN ACTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE PEACH STATE FROM THE NORTH. A SURFACE
TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. MOST STORMS SHOULD
STAY BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA DUE TO MODEST INSTABILITIES AND WEAK WIND
SHEAR PROFILES...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

TDP/LPR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
543 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

GAZ039-051-032215-
543 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS
IN WILKES AND TALIAFERRO COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 538 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WASHINGTON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WILKES AND TALIAFERRO COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CELESTE...NEWTOWN...WASHINGTON...
LUNDBERG...FICKLIN...CARTERS GROVE...RAYTOWN...LYNEVILLE...SHARON...
SANDY CROSS AND TYRONE. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3352 8277 3363 8298 3367 8295 3368 8298
      3385 8283 3377 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 028DEG 3KT 3373 8279

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
545 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             MIDLAND                 32.57N 84.82W
07/03/2011  E1.25 INCH       MUSCOGEE           GA   PUBLIC

&&

SNELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
609 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

GAZ090-091-102-103-032245-
609 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS
IN WEBSTER...STEWART...MARION AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
EDT...

AT 606 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED NEAR ZELLOBEE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WEBSTER...STEWART...MARION AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ZELLOBEE...
CHRISTOPHER...MANTA...RENFROE...SEMINOLE AND BROOKLYN. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3214 8455 3215 8479 3234 8472 3230 8451
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 018DEG 16KT 3224 8465

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
617 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

GAZ072-073-082-032245-
617 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS
IN JONES...BALDWIN AND BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 615 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM BROWNS CROSSING TO PAYNE CITY...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS JONES...BALDWIN AND BIBB COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE WESLEYAN...LAKE
TOBESOFKEE...ARKWRIGHT...PAYNE CITY...BROWNS CROSSING...CLINTON...
HADDOCK...GRAY...ALLENWOOD...MACON...POSTELL...GREENBERRY
CROSSROADS...JAMES...HARDWICK AND MILLEDGEVILLE. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 8307 3301 8315 3297 8317 3298 8321
      3294 8328 3293 8336 3285 8350 3281 8350
      3274 8357 3274 8360 3273 8360 3284 8388
      3301 8361 3312 8331 3300 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 296DEG 18KT 3305 8331 3297 8352
          3286 8370

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
631 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

GAZ104-032300-
631 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH
WINDS IN SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 628 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTY BETWEEN CROXTON
CROSSROADS AND OLIVERS MILL. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SUMTER COUNTY THROUGH 700 PM EDT. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8439 3194 8435 3191 8430 3191 8431
      3191 8433 3188 8433 3187 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 045DEG 1KT 3190 8435

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

GAZ082-094-032315-
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS
IN PEACH AND BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 640 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKWRIGHT TO BYRON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS PEACH AND BIBB COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE WESLEYAN...ARKWRIGHT...
POWERVILLE...BYRON...SKIPPERTON...PAYNE CITY...LAKEWOOD...RUTLAND...
MACON...MIDDLE GEORGIA REGIONAL AIRPORT AND CROSS KEYS. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3259 8390 3268 8378 3269 8372 3274 8381
      3282 8377 3293 8374 3295 8371 3290 8367
      3289 8360 3287 8358 3275 8361 3267 8366
      3269 8370 3255 8373
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 293DEG 12KT 3290 8370 3280 8370
          3264 8377