Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS MORNING.

41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO NOSE IN FROM
THE WEST...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COUPLED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
GEORGIA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT THE GREATER CHANCE FOR STORMS TO
BE GENERALLY NORTH OF A CUSSETA TO MACON TO AUGUSTA LINE WHERE THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND OUT FLOWS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS. MODEST
INSTABILITIES WITH 1500-2000 CAPES AND WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES
SHOULD HELP HINDER WIDESPREAD SEVERE... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
PULSE SEVERE STORMS AS DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH
WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RETREATS WESTWARD...SETTING UP AN ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SETTLES ALONG THE ATLANTIC EAST COAST. ONCE AGAIN...
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WITH VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR
PROFILES... BUT EXPECT THE OCCASIONAL PULSE SEVERE STORM DURING MAX
HEATING WITH WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN STORM THREATS
EACH DAY. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY TODAY WITH
TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S... THE DAYTIME HIGHS EASE
JUST A BIT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LESS RIDGE INFLUENCE AND
BETTER STORM COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. TOOK A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER
THE SE STATES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE NW
FLOW ENHANCING AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED COVERAGE EACH DAY. THE ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORM
THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH ADDED UPPER SUPPORT
DURING MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WITH
NUMBERS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CU BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE METRO AREA...WITH SOME TSRA DEVELOPING.
HAVE MOVED TEMPO TSRA TO BEGIN AT 19Z ACROSS THE METRO SITES...
BUT DELAYED IT UNTIL 20Z FOR MCN/CSG. WINDS GENERALLY LGT AND VRB BUT
FAVOR SOUTHWEST. SURFACE WEAKNESS SHIFTING THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO GO BRIEFLY SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY AT AHN/MCN BUT SHOULD BE
SOUTHWEST AGAIN TOMORROW. SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT TYPICAL
SITES...ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN ON
MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 FOR ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION.
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON WINDS.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          95  70  95  71 /  40  30  40  30
ATLANTA         95  73  93  73 /  50  30  50  40
BLAIRSVILLE     91  65  87  64 /  40  30  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    95  67  94  67 /  40  30  50  40
COLUMBUS        95  72  94  72 /  40  30  40  30
GAINESVILLE     93  72  92  71 /  50  30  50  40
MACON           96  71  95  71 /  30  30  30  20
ROME            96  68  94  69 /  20  20  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  95  68  93  69 /  40  30  50  30
VIDALIA         94  71  95  73 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1155 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040830-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1155 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM CUSSETA TO MACON TO AUGUSTA.

.SYNOPSIS...
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE AN ACTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE PEACH STATE FROM THE NORTH. A SURFACE
TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOST STORMS SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA DUE TO MODEST
INSTABILITIES AND WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES...BUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

TDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
316 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

GAZ067-079-031945-
316 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN TALBOT AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MANCHESTER...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
TALBOT AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RALEIGH...WOODBURY...MANCHESTER...
WOODLAND...WARM SPRINGS AND FLINT HILL. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 8478 3300 8458 3294 8452 3292 8453
      3291 8451 3288 8451 3287 8447 3286 8449
      3284 8446 3273 8462 3280 8470 3284 8470
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 050DEG 10KT 3287 8459