Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
314 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WEST
CENTRAL GA FROM POLK COUNTY SOUTHWARD...ALL BEING DRIVEN BY A
STRONG SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER NORTH GA...SERVING TO STABILIZE THE
AIR MASS THERE. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS OVER WEST CENTRAL GA IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS PRODUCING 1500-2500
CAPE AND -5 TO -7 LI'S. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A MODERATELY STEEP
LAPSE RATE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MODERATE UPDRAFTS...
ALL SUGGESTING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM ALABAMA
WILL HOLD TOGETHER...AND BRING AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WHERE BOWING
ALONG THE LINE IS NOTED. IN ADDITION TO THE LINE... ALSO EXPECT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE LINE. SO FAR... THE STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS IN ALABAMA HAVE
BEEN MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LINE WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALL SUGGESTING
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF A CARROLLTON TO MACON TO ABBEVILLE LINE. THE STRONG TO
SEVERE THREAT WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BY 10 PM WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVING EAST. OTHERWISE... EXPECT ADDITIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES TO HOLD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL. AS FOR TEMPS... HAVE
LEANED CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FOR LOWS AND THE WARMER MAV FOR HIGHS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE
AREA BY MONDAY...AND PREVAILING TROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK... WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAYBE IN THE
NE GA MOUNTAINS WITH AID FROM HOT TEMPS AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH INCREASING WEAKNESS ALOFT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME AREAS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
/158 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011/
18Z UPDATE...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME SITES
FALLING TO MVFR DUE TO HAZE/FOG OVERNIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY
GENERALLY WESTERLY...BUT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THAT CAN CAUSE
THAT TO DIFFER. TIMING OF PCPN ON BOTH RADAR AND ON THE HRRR MODEL
LOOK TO AFFECT METRO ATL AROUND 18Z-21Z. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
AFFECT CSG AROUND 20Z AND MCN AROUND 21Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
PREFERRED HRRR SOLUTION...BUT IT WAS RUNNING AN HOUR EARLY ON
PLACEMENT OF CURRENT CONVECTION.

10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  94  70  98 /  30  30  20  20
ATLANTA         72  94  74  93 /  30  30  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     64  89  66  91 /  30  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  92  67  95 /  30  30  20  10
COLUMBUS        72  95  72  95 /  50  30  20  10
GAINESVILLE     69  93  71  94 /  30  30  20  20
MACON           71  95  71  96 /  40  30  20  10
ROME            68  92  68  97 /  30  30  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  68  93  69  94 /  40  30  20  10
VIDALIA         72  94  72  97 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
414 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
414 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON... AND INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON...TO MACON... TO ABBEVILLE.
ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES APPROACHING -8
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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