Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
746 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LAYER OF DRIER AIR SPREADING IN OVER NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON...AS
NOTED ON LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HAS GREATLY HINDERED
ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT THERE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PARKED ACROSS
CENTRAL GA...NEAR A COLUMBUS TO DUBLIN LINE... HAS PROVIDED THE
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON... AND THIS THREAT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MID EVENING...ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT
AN ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS AS A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THE STATE. WEAK SHEAR VALUES AND MODEST INSTABILITY (1500-2000
CAPE, -5 TO -7 LI'S) SUGGESTS PULSE THUNDERSTORMS THAT GENERALLY
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AS FOR TEMPS...STAYED
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV LOWS AND WARMER GUIDANCE HIGHS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY SUNDAY...AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY... AND THEREFORE GREATLY LIMITING CONVECTION
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LIFT IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE... WARM TEMPS
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE STATE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RECORD HIGHS
ON THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DIED DOWN FOR THE EVENING NEAR THE TAF SITES. CU
BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT AS WELL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT...BELOW 5KT AT ATL AND NEARLY CALM ELSEWHERE. SOME
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING A SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT
MOST GUIDANCE REMAINING ON THE WEST SIDE. WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE
SOME MVFR FOG AT THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE KEPT TREND OF PROB30 AND EXPANDED
IT TO OTHER TAF SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION...HIGH ON WIND SPEED.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  95  68  94 /  10  20  30  20
ATLANTA         67  94  72  92 /  10  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     53  88  60  87 /  10  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    63  93  64  92 /  10  30  20  20
COLUMBUS        69  95  72  94 /  20  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     63  92  69  91 /  10  20  30  20
MACON           67  96  69  95 /  20  20  30  20
ROME            64  93  65  92 /  10  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  65  94  66  92 /  10  20  30  20
VIDALIA         68  97  72  96 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1050 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-171100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1050 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
GEORGIA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THOUGH...ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...MUCH MORE STABLE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE NICKEL
SIZED HAIL AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A LAGRANGE...TO
MACON...TO AUGUSTA LINE PRIMARILY FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 PM EDT.

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT A LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE STATE. THE REMNANT COLD POOL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH GEORGIA. DRIER...MUCH MORE
STABLE AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA AS ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ONLY ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY IN THE
NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS CAN SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ONLINE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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