Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
215 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...FEW STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRYING TREND...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MACON AND INTO THE
GULF COAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED IN THIS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 WHICH IS HELPING YIELD MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES IN THE
2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. RESULT OF THIS HAS BEEN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG STORMS
CONTAINING MARGINAL HAIL THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ALONG WITH CONTINUED MODERATE COLD
POOL...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL THE DOMINANT MODE.

RAPID REFRESH MODELS NOT ONLY SHOW ACTIVITY QUICKLY WANING AFTER
SUNSET...BUT ALSO SHIFT ACTIVITY QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND LIMIT POPS TO JUST 20 PERCENT AFTER
03Z AND CONFINE TO THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS DO SHOW WITH CONTINUED ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND ALONG THE EASTERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
INCLUDE IN LATEST GRID UPDATE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE ONLY DAY WITH VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A DRY
FORECAST IS SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE GULF COAST. LOOKS LIKE ANY ENERGY FROM THE NORTH WILL SPILL
OVER THE RIDGE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT EVENING. THIS
ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S RESULTS IN ME LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER
GFS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 DOES GENERATE AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS TYPICALLY OVERDONE
WITH CONVECTION WITH STRONG MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONES IN PLACE.

THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS NAM12 IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN BRINGING TSRA CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA. AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A 590 DM HIGH BY THIS TIME AND ONE WOULD THINK THIS
WOULD EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN ALL PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE SPECIFIC
LAYERS HOWEVER...MOISTURE UNDER THE HIGH DOES INCREASE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE GFS INCREASING TO 1.60 AND THE NAM12
1.80 BUT LIKELY INFLUENCED BY DEVELOPING CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH
FORECAST WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY...GIVEN TRENDS...WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS PRIMARILY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER HIGH LIFTS NORTH FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR A RETURN TO LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CURRENT
EXTENDED PORTION HANDLES THIS WELL AND NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN AND CENTRAL
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
STATE. LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
VSBY GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIP AREAS. MAY SEE VSBY
LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT IN PATCHY FOG. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS LOOK GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

49

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  89  65  89 /  30  20  10  20
ATLANTA         63  88  69  88 /   0   0   5  20
BLAIRSVILLE     53  82  60  83 /  10   5   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    56  90  61  90 /   0   5   5  20
COLUMBUS        65  91  68  91 /   0   5   0  10
GAINESVILLE     62  87  67  86 /  10   5   5  20
MACON           64  92  66  90 /  20  10  10  10
ROME            55  91  61  92 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  89  63  89 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         66  90  68  89 /  40  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1133 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281545-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1133 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD TODAY AS A SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...PULLING A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS GEORGIA. A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH A FEW COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA ON
SATURDAY AND A CHANCE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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