Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
346 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING EAST THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
06Z WITH DEEPER CONVECTION ENDING DURING THE EVENING. PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
MONDAY...BUT I AM KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. EVEN
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ONLY INCLUDING THUNDER DURING THE DAY
MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED UPPER FORCING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER FLOW...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND MILD TO SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES LOOK APPROPRIATE WITH THE OMEGA-LIKE STATIC UPPER
PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON GEORGIA'S DOOR...WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS
EXPECTED ONCE IT PUSHES IN. STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE LEFT CB IN THE CLOUD GROUPS FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE INTO
MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LOW MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN TAFS. SOME HINT AT IFR CIGS BUT
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY FOR NOW. SHOULD START CLEARING BACK TO VFR
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS BUILDING BACK IN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WINDS.
MEDIUM ON CIGS.
LOW ON DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIAL TSRA THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  73  51  68 /  20  10  10  40
ATLANTA         55  72  52  64 /  10  10  10  40
BLAIRSVILLE     54  69  49  62 /  20  20  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    53  69  50  63 /  10  20  30  40
COLUMBUS        56  76  54  69 /   5   5  10  30
GAINESVILLE     55  70  51  65 /  20  20  20  40
MACON           57  78  53  71 /  10   5  10  30
ROME            52  68  50  63 /  10  20  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  54  73  51  65 /   5  10  10  30
VIDALIA         60  81  57  75 /  30   5  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
445 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-150915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
445 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PUSHED A COLD FRONT INTO
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...HAIL...AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST
OF A LINE FROM CORDELE TO DUBLIN TO ATHENS.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PUSHED A COLD FRONT
INTO GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS
FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS ONLINE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
455 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW HARRISON          32.84N 82.76W
05/14/2011                   WASHINGTON         GA   911 CALL CENTER

            WASHINGTON COUNTY 911 RELAYED A REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE
            ON NEW TENNILLE ROAD.

&&

RGARCIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
514 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

GAZ110>113-142200-
514 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN WHEELER...
TOOMBS...TELFAIR AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 511 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM TARRYTOWN TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHINA
HILL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS
WHEELER...TOOMBS...TELFAIR AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE LITTLE
OCMULGEE STATE PARK...HELENA...MCRAE...LANDSBURG...ALAMO...CHINA
HILL...TARRYTOWN...GLENWOOD...WORKMORE...SCOTLAND...JACKSONVILLE...
KIBBEE...MOUNT VERNON...AILEY AND SPRING HILL.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
AROUND LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS.

LAT...LON 3181 8310 3181 8313 3184 8318 3230 8271
      3230 8267 3231 8265 3236 8241 3232 8236
      3229 8235 3231 8222 3228 8222 3192 8260
      3192 8267 3184 8279 3178 8304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 254DEG 30KT 3237 8257 3221 8271
          3180 8315