Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
630 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/300 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011/
A WEAK WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM MHK KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. FOR THE MOST PART...THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS DUE TO WEAK SHEAR. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE PULSE NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
THE CONVECTION TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.
STORMS MAY TEND TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

HOWEVER...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY REGENERATE OR MAINTAIN CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL END ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL CAP SPREADING EAST INTO MISSOURI AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.

DB

MEDIUM RANGE (SAT-WED)...

DEVELOPING MID-ATLANTIC BLOCKING WILL ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
PATTERN TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AS WE MOVE
INTO AND THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALLOWING A SUMMERLIKE UPR RIDGE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CONUS.  CONDITIONS UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL BE TYPICAL TO
THOSE OF JULY...WITH THE 588 DM RIDGE SUPPORTING UPR 80S TO LOWER
90S EACH AFTERNOON.  A HIGHER SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PREVENTED BY THE RETURN OF RATHER OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S EACH AFTERNOON THANKS IN
PART TO INCREASING EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.  HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPR 90S.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST MODEST CAPPING WHICH SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...TYPICALLY A POOR FORECAST FOR MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...IS EXPECTED TO VARY FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN.  ANY
SHORTWAVE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW COULD PRODUCE
SCT DIURNAL TSRA BY NEXT WEEK.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS
EVENING AND AFFECT KMCI/KMKC. IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN-MOST CLUSTER
OF STORMS WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF KSTJ. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT PASSES THROUGH AND SHOULD EXIT THE TERMINALS A COUPLE HOURS
INTO THE FORECAST. EXCEPT FOR NW MO...SHOULD THEN EXPECT DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT
BUILDING CONVECTION NOW MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS COULD ROLL EAST
OVERNIGHT AND PASS CLOSE TO KSTJ DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WILL
INSERT VCTS TO DENOTE THIS POSSIBILITY.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON THURSDAY AND EXPECT TO SEE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-021215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
657 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK EAST THROUGH
EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THIS EVENING. A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER ALL NIGHT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOST OF THE
STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 9 PM OVER PARTS OF EXTREME
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS WELL AS ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THURSDAY
MORNING. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES RISING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
502 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ057-060-012230-
LINN KS-MIAMI KS-
502 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LINN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MIAMI COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

AT 458 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PARKER...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF OSAWATOMIE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BEAGLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3835 9507 3837 9507 3848 9501 3839 9484
      3831 9499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 218DEG 12KT 3836 9500

DEROCHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
518 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ060-012245-
LINN KS-
518 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LINN COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LA CYGNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LA CYGNE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3839 9479 3834 9461 3824 9473 3826 9482
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 203DEG 8KT 3830 9475

DEROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
530 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             1 E LA CYGNE            38.35N 94.74W
06/01/2011  E1.25 INCH       LINN               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MOSTLY PEA SIZED...WITH A FEW WALNUT SIZED STONES

&&

ABAILEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
613 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ025-012345-
ATCHISON KS-
613 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN ATCHISON COUNTY UNTIL 645
PM CDT...

AT 607 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NETAWAKA...OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NORTONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MUSCOTAH...EFFINGHAM AND ARRINGTON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3944 9557 3956 9558 3958 9557 3964 9557
      3962 9530 3942 9536 3942 9557 3942 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 280DEG 32KT 3955 9564

DEROCHE

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