Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM MHK KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY. FOR THE MOST PART...THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS DUE TO WEAK SHEAR. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE PULSE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE CONVECTION TO
SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. STORMS MAY TEND TO
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.

HOWEVER...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY REGENERATE OR MAINTAIN CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL END ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL CAP SPREADING EAST INTO MISSOURI AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.

DB

MEDIUM RANGE (SAT-WED)...

DEVELOPING MID-ATLANTIC BLOCKING WILL ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
PATTERN TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AS WE MOVE
INTO AND THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALLOWING A SUMMERLIKE UPR RIDGE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CONUS.  CONDITIONS UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL BE TYPICAL TO
THOSE OF JULY...WITH THE 588 DM RIDGE SUPPORTING UPR 80S TO LOWER
90S EACH AFTERNOON.  A HIGHER SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PREVENTED BY THE RETURN OF RATHER OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S EACH AFTERNOON THANKS IN
PART TO INCREASING EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.  HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPR 90S.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST MODEST CAPPING WHICH SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...TYPICALLY A POOR FORECAST FOR MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...IS EXPECTED TO VARY FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN.  ANY
SHORTWAVE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW COULD PRODUCE
SCT DIURNAL TSRA BY NEXT WEEK.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WHICH IS ALSO MARKS THE BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...WAS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THE STORMS WERE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST TOWARD THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...THE FOCUS SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINALS AS THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1257 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-021215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1257 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN KANSAS ALONG A
WEAK WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND MAY
IMPACT AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO KANSAS CITY TO SEDALIA
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE...BUT MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY...THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THURSDAY
MORNING. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES RISING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ060-012045-
LINN KS-
307 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LINN COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 304 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF PARKER...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MOUND CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL CENTRAL LINN COUNTY THROUGH 345 PM CDT
RURAL NORTHERN LINN COUNTY THROUGH 345 PM CDT

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3816 9502 3826 9507 3838 9490 3827 9470
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 244DEG 13KT 3825 9495

DB