Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Kansas City, MO

227 
WWUS53 KEAX 021953
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
253 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

MOC115-022003-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-110602T2015Z/
LINN MO-
253 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINN COUNTY IN
NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3961 9263 3961 9270 3958 9270 3960 9300
      3969 9299 3970 9292 3970 9286 3972 9286
      3977 9266
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 288DEG 16KT 3962 9289

$$

MOC041-121-022015-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-110602T2015Z/
CHARITON MO-MACON MO-
253 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MACON AND NORTHEASTERN CHARITON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 250 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH...AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6
MILES SOUTH OF MARCELINE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WIEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF
SUPERCELLS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY SHOULD A
TORNADO OCCUR OR A TORNADO WARNING BE ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3961 9263 3961 9270 3958 9270 3960 9300
      3969 9299 3970 9292 3970 9286 3972 9286
      3977 9266
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 288DEG 16KT 3962 9289
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

DEROCHE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

REMNANTS OF MCS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG LOW LEVEL JET IN CENTRAL KANSAS
IS WORKING ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING BUT WEAKENS AS IT LOSES BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOVES INTO WEAKER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL BE LAST PRECIPITATION FOR THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER
RIDGING WITH STRONG CAP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND A LITTLE STRONGER SHEAR IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST WHICH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUB
SEVERE CONVECTION.

NONE OF THE MODELS HANDLED THE WEAK WAVE THAT HELPED TRIGGER THE
STORMS LAST NIGHT...AND SO NOT CONFIDENT IN FIRST PERIOD SOLUTIONS
WITH THE PRECIPITATION ENDING COMPLETELY BY DAYBREAK.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
UNTIL FAIRLY LATE AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MCS FINALLY EXITS THE REGION TODAY THE STRONG UPPER RIDGING
IN THE SOUTHERN US WILL TURN THE HEAT ON BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY...HOT AND
HUMID BUT DRY.

ON SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OFF WEST COAST OF US WILL SEND
UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY ATOP THE RIDGE WHICH WILL FLATTEN IT SLIGHTLY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION. THE UPPER LOW MAKES LITTLE
PROGRESS EASTWARD BUT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
RETROGRADES...BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI MONDAY OR
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. IF THE GFS VERIFIES THE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST FINALLY MOVES INLAND AND NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN US BREAKS DOWN TO ALLOW
MORE CYCLONIC FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY FOR NOW.
ADOLPHSON

&&

.AVIATION...

BACK EDGE OF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FROM DECAYED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
WAS MOVING EAST OF TERMINALS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 12Z TAF
PACKAGE. TRAILING -SHRA OVER CNTRL KANSAS MAY AFFECT AERODROME SITES
THIS MORNING...THOUGH COULD DECAY BEFORE REACHING WRN MISSOURI. SOME
RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT SITES FOR THE FIRST HOURS OF VALID
TAFS...HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LITTLE ADDITIONAL
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...ONLY THICKER CIRRUS COVER AND INCREASINGLY
GUSTY SLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TIME
FRAME.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1257 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1257 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM PRINCETON TO BRUNSWICK TO
FAYETTE. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S WITH HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DB