Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

REMNANTS OF MCS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG LOW LEVEL JET IN CENTRAL KANSAS
IS WORKING ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING BUT WEAKENS AS IT LOSES BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOVES INTO WEAKER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL BE LAST PRECIPITATION FOR THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER
RIDGING WITH STRONG CAP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND A LITTLE STRONGER SHEAR IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST WHICH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUB
SEVERE CONVECTION.

NONE OF THE MODELS HANDLED THE WEAK WAVE THAT HELPED TRIGGER THE
STORMS LAST NIGHT...AND SO NOT CONFIDENT IN FIRST PERIOD SOLUTIONS
WITH THE PRECIPITATION ENDING COMPLETELY BY DAYBREAK.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
UNTIL FAIRLY LATE AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MCS FINALLY EXITS THE REGION TODAY THE STRONG UPPER RIDGING
IN THE SOUTHERN US WILL TURN THE HEAT ON BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY...HOT AND
HUMID BUT DRY.

ON SATURDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OFF WEST COAST OF US WILL SEND
UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY ATOP THE RIDGE WHICH WILL FLATTEN IT SLIGHTLY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION. THE UPPER LOW MAKES LITTLE
PROGRESS EASTWARD BUT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
RETROGRADES...BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI MONDAY OR
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. IF THE GFS VERIFIES THE
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST FINALLY MOVES INLAND AND NORTHWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN US BREAKS DOWN TO ALLOW
MORE CYCLONIC FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY FOR NOW.
ADOLPHSON

&&

.AVIATION...

BACK EDGE OF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD FROM DECAYED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
WAS MOVING EAST OF TERMINALS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 12Z TAF
PACKAGE. TRAILING -SHRA OVER CNTRL KANSAS MAY AFFECT AERODROME SITES
THIS MORNING...THOUGH COULD DECAY BEFORE REACHING WRN MISSOURI. SOME
RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT SITES FOR THE FIRST HOURS OF VALID
TAFS...HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LITTLE ADDITIONAL
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...ONLY THICKER CIRRUS COVER AND INCREASINGLY
GUSTY SLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TIME
FRAME.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
439 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-030945-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
439 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S WITH HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ADOLPHSON