Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
843 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...DISCUSSION...

RISK OF THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS ENDED. WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL BUT THE NW TIP OF MO WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND QPF TO ACCOUNT
FOR LATEST TRENDS.

MJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/425 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/
COLD CORE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SYSTEM CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF KANSAS
CITY...AS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. CURRENT SPOKE OF
ACTIVITY IS ARCHED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI /AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS/ THROUGH NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI. AS THE CORE OF THE LOW ALOFT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS ALSO SHIFTED EAST AS
DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR STAY AHEAD OF THE LOW. RADAR TRENDS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE BACKED THAT ASSERTION UP AS SEVERE
SIGNATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVING SHIFTED FARTHER
AND FARTHER EAST. HAVE BEGUN TRIMMING THE TORNADO WATCH FROM THE WEST
SIDE OF THE BOX AT THIS TIME. STORMS THAT ARE ROTATING BACK AROUND
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI INTO EASTERN KANSAS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT INSTEAD JUST PROVIDE
MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS OF RAIN WITH SOME LIGHTNING. SEVERE THREAT
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT IN CENTRAL MISSOURI FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE INSOLATION WORKING WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT TO DEVELOP INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BY THE
TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN ANY THREAT FROM SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE ENDED
WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LEFT IN THE SYSTEMS WAKE.

AS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...WITH THE CURRENT SPOKE OF STORM ACTIVITY ROTATING THROUGH
THAT SECTION OF MISSOURI DO NOT FEEL IT IS A GOOD IDEA TO DROP THE
WATCH AT THIS TIME. BUT...GIVEN THE RAINFALL REPORTS FROM UNDER THE
STORMS...THOUGHTS ARE THAT WE WILL NOT HAVE TO CONTINUE THE WATCH
PAST ITS CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 7 PM THIS EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY...AS THE COLD CORE LOW SHIFTS EAST...AND IS SHEARED
APART BY THE STRONG WESTERLIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...COOL
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THIS
WILL KEEP CONDITION COOL AND DRY FOR A LATE MAY DAY.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE /CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO KICK BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE WILL BE TRYING TO
RETURN TO THE REGION ON THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WIND. HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH AS THE BEST SUPPORT
FROM THE JET AND AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND IOWA.

FOR SATURDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PLAGUE THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL BE BEGINNING TO SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. GIVEN
HOW FAR NORTH INTO THE PLAINS STATES THE SHORTWAVE IS GOING TO
EJECT...THOUGHTS FOR NOW ARE THAT MUCH OF THE THREAT FOR STORMS IN
OUR REGION WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST
CORNER OF MISSOURI. THIS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD TO THE ENTER FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND A FRONT PRESSES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES COLD CORE
UPPER LOW CENTER LOCATED JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL SITES
EARLY THIS EVENING.  SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND UPPER LOW
CENTER.  BETTER TAP OF THETAE AIR AND REDUCED DIURNAL HEATING WITH
SETTING SUN SHOULD ALLOW BANDS OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...MENTION MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SHOWERS/RAIN THROUGH 03-04
UTC...THEN ONLY CARRY MVFR VSBYS DUE TO MIST. VSREF AND RUC BOTH
KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH VSREF
AND GUIDANCE HINT AT IFR CIGS DEVELOPING...DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY AND
CONFIDENCE...DECIDED TO KEEP CIGS ONLY IN MVFR CATEGORIES
OVERNIGHT.  UPPER AND SURFACE LOW SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION...BUT CIGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK BY 15-16 UTC ON THURSDAY.  IN ADDITION TO MVFR
CIGS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SF

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
658 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
658 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FROM WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL
MISSOURI...ROUGHLY FROM KANSAS CITY TO BOONVILLE...THROUGH SUNSET. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE THERE THE ENTIRE REGION
HAS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL HAVE A HIGHER
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
511 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     TORNADO          LOUISBURG               38.62N 94.68W
05/25/2011                   MIAMI              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR
            LOUISBURG KANSAS.

1115 AM     TORNADO          8 SSE OVERLAND PARK     38.81N 94.63W
05/25/2011                   JOHNSON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT. EF-0 CONFIRMED. JUST NORTH OF 159TH
            BETWEEN NALL AND ROE. TREES WERE UPROOTED. SURVEYED BY
            LAW ENFORCEMENT.

1118 AM     TORNADO          OVERLAND PARK           38.91N 94.68W
05/25/2011                   JOHNSON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO ON GROUND 137 AND METCALF.THIS REPORT WAS NOT
            CONFIRMED.

1122 AM     TORNADO          OVERLAND PARK           38.91N 94.68W
05/25/2011                   JOHNSON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS TORNADO ON GROUND 135 AND METCALF

1125 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NW LEAWOOD            38.93N 94.65W
05/25/2011                   JOHNSON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

1131 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 S CALHOUN             38.42N 93.62W
05/25/2011                   HENRY              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOVING 30-40 MPH.

1135 AM     TORNADO          HARRISONVILLE           38.66N 94.35W
05/25/2011                   CASS               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS TORNADO ON THE GROUND SOUTHEAST
            OF HARRISONVILLE

1138 AM     TORNADO          OVERLAND PARK           38.91N 94.68W
05/25/2011                   JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

            TORNADO AT EXIT 224 ON I-35 OVERLAND PARK

1145 AM     HAIL             GRANDVIEW               38.88N 94.52W
05/25/2011  E1.50 INCH       JACKSON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1149 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 W RAYTOWN             39.00N 94.55W
05/25/2011                   JACKSON            MO   PUBLIC

1157 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SW LEES SUMMIT        38.90N 94.41W
05/25/2011                   JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR LONGVIEW LAKE

1206 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 E KANSAS CITY         39.12N 94.50W
05/25/2011                   JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL NEAR EAST OF ROYALS STADIUM

1222 PM     TORNADO          9 NNW OTTERVILLE        38.82N 93.06W
05/25/2011                   PETTIS             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTERS REPORT TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST INSIDE COUNTY
            LINE

1222 PM     TORNADO          1 SE SEDALIA            38.69N 93.22W
05/25/2011                   PETTIS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS HOMES AND
            BUSINESSES...TANKER TRUCK OVERTURNED...UNKNOWN NUMBER OF
            INJURIES

1223 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 E GLADSTONE           39.20N 94.48W
05/25/2011                   CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED NEAR THE FORD PLANT.

1224 PM     TORNADO          SEDALIA                 38.70N 93.23W
05/25/2011                   PETTIS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO ON GROUND IN SEDALIA

1228 PM     HAIL             1 S OAK GROVE           38.99N 94.13W
05/25/2011  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

1228 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     8 SW ODESSA             38.92N 94.06W
05/25/2011                   JOHNSON            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

1232 PM     HAIL             OAK GROVE               39.00N 94.13W
05/25/2011  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1233 PM     TORNADO          5 S KEARNEY             39.29N 94.38W
05/25/2011                   CLAY               MO   AIRPLANE PILOT

            BRIEF TOUCH DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION HWY 152 AND HWY 291

1240 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     WELLINGTON              39.14N 93.99W
05/25/2011                   LAFAYETTE          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1245 PM     TORNADO          1 WNW KEARNEY           39.37N 94.38W
05/25/2011                   CLAY               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN

1259 PM     TORNADO          4 W CLIFTON HILL        38.77N 93.12W
05/25/2011                   PETTIS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND 3 MILES WEST OF HWY JJ AND
            HWY 135 INTERSECTION...MOVING NNE.

0104 PM     TORNADO          5 N CLIFTON CITY        38.84N 93.05W
05/25/2011                   COOPER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO ON GROUND

0107 PM     TORNADO          3 SSE HIGGINSVILLE      39.03N 93.71W
05/25/2011                   LAFAYETTE          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF MM AND HWY 13

0109 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 S GOWER               39.58N 94.60W
05/25/2011                   BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS OBSERVED IN THE AREA.

0109 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 E EXCELSIOR SPRINGS   39.35N 94.20W
05/25/2011                   RAY                MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0427 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 E GRAHAM              40.20N 94.93W
05/25/2011                   NODAWAY            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEARLY ONE FOOT OF WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROAD

&&

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
725 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     TORNADO          9 SSE OVERLAND PARK     38.79N 94.62W
05/25/2011                   JOHNSON            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO BLUE VALLEY MIDDLE SCHOOL

&&

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
824 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     FLOOD            1 W ROSENDALE           40.04N 94.84W
05/25/2011                   ANDREW             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER COVERING HIGHWAY 48. WATER ALSO CLOSING ROADS IN
            BOLCKOW.

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
825 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     FLOOD            N FOREST CITY           39.98N 95.19W
05/25/2011                   HOLT               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER COVERING HIGHWAY 111

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
828 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     FLOOD            1 NE ALBANY             40.26N 94.32W
05/25/2011                   GENTRY             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROUTE J FLOODED. HIGHWAY H 1 S OF CARMACK ALSO FLOODED

&&

SFORTIN

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