Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Quad Cities, IA

162 
WWUS53 KDVN 280039
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
739 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

IAC061-ILC085-280048-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0132.000000T0000Z-110728T0045Z/
DUBUQUE IA-JO DAVIESS IL-
739 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN JO DAVIESS AND
EAST CENTRAL DUBUQUE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER HAS 
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST...AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A DIFFERENT WARNING.
THEREFORE THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4257 9066 4251 9063 4251 9014 4238 9058
      4238 9066 4235 9067 4235 9068 4251 9079
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 244DEG 21KT 4260 9027

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
333 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A LLJ OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS RUNNING FROM THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SECONDARY LLJ OF 40
KNOTS WAS A RESULT OF THE MCS ACROSS MN/WI. A RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE
FOR JULY WAS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND MOVING INTO IOWA WITH
ANOTHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS IN MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS AT 850MB
WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW CONSIDERABLE ACCAS
ACROSS IOWA WITH SHRA AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSRA FROM NORTHERN IOWA
INTO WISCONSIN. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A BOUNDARY/FRONT FROM NEAR KMCW
TO KSFY AND THEN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS BOUNDARY IS TAKING ON
CHARACTERISTICS OF A WARM FRONT WITH IT SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. A WEAK
LOW WAS APPROACHING KOMA WITH ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES IN NORTHWEST
IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
OVERALL...MODEL INITIALIZATION WAS VERY POOR ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS
TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NO ONE MODEL HAD AN ADVANTAGE OVER THE OTHER
MODELS.

WHAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HRS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NON-HYDROSTATIC PROCESSES ARE DOMINATING
THE SENSIBLE WX SO THE MODELS WILL BE PLAYING CATCH UP. THE RUC
WAS USED HEAVILY AS A TREND TOOL.

THE MCV FROM THE NOCTURNAL MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND IS NOW
APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND WISCONSIN ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY THIS MCV.

RUC TRENDS ALONG WITH MCS/LIFT AND HEAVY RAIN TOOLS ARE SUGGESTING
CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER VORT MAX BEHIND THE MCV. THE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY IS THE
LOGICAL FOCUS TO INITIATE THIS CONVECTION. ONCE CONVECTION
INITIATES...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.

WHERE THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP WILL THEN BE KEY TO AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIP TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE RUC TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING
CONVECTION AND THE SUBSEQUENT MCS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING.

AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 30 ARE QUITE MOIST FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. THERE
IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT BUT WITH INTERNAL MODEL SIGNALS
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR BACK BUILDING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR ABOUT THE NORTH THIRD OF THE CWFA.

AREAS BETWEEN HWY 30 AND I-80 ARE NOT AS MOIST AND CAN TAKE A BIT
MORE RAIN. HOWEVER...IF TRAINING DOES DEVELOP AND IS FURTHER SOUTH
THAT CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST...THE PROBABILITY EXISTS THAT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT COULD RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER INCH
TO OVER 3 INCHES.

AS FOR THE HEAT HEADLINES...THEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY DEPENDING UPON HOW
CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE LATE TONIGHT TO JUST
PAST SUNRISE WITH CORFIDI VECTORS FROM SEVERAL MODELS SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR BACK BUILDING. THUS THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...CONVECTION FROM THE MCS THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
DECAY/DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
A BREAK IN THE RAIN EITHER LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
BOUNDARIES FROM THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR NEW CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
LOWERED FOR THURSDAY BASED ON CLOUDS/PRECIP AND FRONTAL LOCATION.
HOWEVER...THEY MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO WARM.
..08..

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF PROG THE QUASI STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE AREA AND ACTING AS
A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
BY FRIDAY EVENING. UNTIL THIS BOUNDARY CLEARS THE REGION CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING THAT WILL DIMINISH TO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 2 INCHES SO ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HEAT DOME LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS. ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MILLIBARS OVER OUR AREA
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A LONG WAVE RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAINLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND HUMID WITH DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH DEWPOINTS RANGING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 WHICH COULD
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TIMING AND LOCATION OF
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THEM BEING SO LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  ..KUHL..

&&

.AVIATION...
BOUNDARIES FROM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND APPROACHING ENERGY ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN NEW CONVECTION FIRING 21Z/27-00Z/28. KDBQ/KCID
POTENTIALLY TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH TSRA WITH POTENTIAL
VSBYS/CIGS BLO 3SM AND 3KFT. TSRA ACTIVITY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
00Z/28-06Z/28. 3-5SM RA ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
VCTS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1SM AND 1KFT CIGS WITH TSRA FOR AN
EXTENDED TIME 06Z/28 TO 12Z/28.
..08..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-
     JACKSON-JONES-LINN.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
353 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-281000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
353 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 PM
NORTHWEST OF A FREEPORT ILLINOIS TO IOWA CITY IOWA LINE AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HIGH INSTABILITY
SUPPORTS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH THE MAIN RISK WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AS A SECONDARY RISK.
LOCAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE MAY CREATE MINOR WATER ISSUES.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...
MAINLY IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH STRONG WINDS OVER 60 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VINTON IOWA TO STERLING ILLINOIS LINE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEAT WARNING AND
ADVISORY STATEMENTS FOR MORE COMPLETE INFORMATION.

THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND WILL BE GREATEST THURSDAY
AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. THIS RISK WILL INITIALLY BE GREATEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH OVER 100 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
639 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WNW DUBUQUE           42.52N 90.76W
07/27/2011  M0.60 INCH       DUBUQUE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN 20 MINUTES

&&

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