Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Des Moines, IA

343 
WWUS53 KDMX 232336
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

IAC007-117-135-185-240000-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0259.000000T0000Z-110724T0000Z/
WAYNE IA-MONROE IA-LUCAS IA-APPANOOSE IA-
636 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
APPANOOSE...SOUTHEASTERN LUCAS...SOUTHWESTERN MONROE AND NORTHEASTERN
WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 631 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHARITON...OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF CENTERVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MELROSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS...FALLING TREES AND FLYING DEBRIS. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME...GET
OUT NOW...AND SEEK SHELTER IN A REINFORCED BUILDING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCED
WARNING. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...IMMEDIATELY MOVE TO THE BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM OF A REINFORCED BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4106 9333 4106 9292 4085 9298 4089 9328
      4096 9337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 288DEG 16KT 4094 9311
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

BEERENDS

514 
WWUS53 KDMX 232351
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
651 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

IAC007-117-135-185-240000-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0259.000000T0000Z-110724T0000Z/
WAYNE IA-MONROE IA-LUCAS IA-APPANOOSE IA-
651 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
APPANOOSE...SOUTHEASTERN LUCAS...SOUTHWESTERN MONROE AND NORTHEASTERN
WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 649 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARITON...OR 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
CENTERVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MELROSE...CHARITON...RUSSELL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A REINFORCED BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4096 9330 4102 9334 4106 9333 4106 9309
      4098 9294 4085 9298 4089 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 309DEG 10KT 4093 9311
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

BEERENDS

206 
WWUS53 KDMX 240002
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
702 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

IAC007-117-135-185-240011-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0259.000000T0000Z-110724T0000Z/
WAYNE IA-MONROE IA-LUCAS IA-APPANOOSE IA-
702 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN APPANOOSE...
SOUTHEASTERN LUCAS...SOUTHWESTERN MONROE AND NORTHEASTERN WAYNE
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL 
ACTIVITY.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 4096 9330 4102 9334 4106 9333 4106 9309
      4098 9294 4085 9298 4089 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 309DEG 10KT 4093 9311

$$

BEERENDS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
A COMPLICATED WX PATTERN WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
MONSOONAL FLOW WELL POSITIONED OVER IA.  CONVECTION DURG THE DAY
KEPT A BROAD SWATH OF CNTRL IA COOL TODAY AND THAT COOL AIR WAS
DRAWN NWD INTO THE NERN CONTIES.  ONLY THE SRN 3 TIER WARMED INTO
THE 90S THIS AFTN AND FOR THAT REASON WILL DROP HEADLINES XCP FOR
THE HEAT WARNING OVR THE SRN 3 TIER.  CDFNT WILL MOVE INTO NWRN IA
LATER THIS EVE AND EXPECT TO SEE A LINE OF TSRA FORM WITH THAT.  PUT
GUSTY WINDS IN THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA THRU THE EVE.  BEST SUPPORT
IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. AS TSRA MOVE INTO THE MOISTURE PLUME
WOULD FEEL THE TSRA WILL BECOME MORE MULTI-CELLULAR IN NATURE AND
REDUCE THE SVR THREAT.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 2+ INCH
AMOUNTS IN SPOTS...BUT WITH FFG QUITE HIGH MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW COUNTIES OVR THE NORTHEAST...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED
ABOUT THAT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY
MORNING IS FORECAST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THE THIS FEATURE.
AS A RESULT...UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY SHOULD SHOULD RESULT
COLD FRONT CLEARING THE STATE ON SUNDAY.  12Z FRONTAL POSITION
SHOULD BE THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA.  THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE OF TONIGHT/S CONVECTION.  NONE THE LESS...EXPECT
FRONT TO EXIT SOUTHERN IOWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ALOFT...MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH MOVING AROUND SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHOULD BE PUSHED
INTO MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHERN IOWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT/S BEEN
UNSETTLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BAND AND EXPECT
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  OF COURSE...HAVING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TO
MAXIMIZE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOESN/T HURT.

SURFACE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE 36 HOURS OF LOW POPS...COOLER TEMPS AND
LOWER DEW POINTS WHICH WILL BE A NICE CHANGE GIVEN THE RECENT
PATTERN.

.EXTENDED/TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE LACK OF FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WAVE FURTHER
WEST WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT...WITH THE ECMWF LESS AMPLIFIED AND
THEREFORE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE GEM...AND MORE SO GFS BEING
STRONGER AND A BIT SLOWER. THE DIFFERENCE MANIFESTS ITSELF IN THE
LOCATION OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. USED A
MODEL BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...WITH BEST POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
YIELD HIGH CAPE VALUES ON WEDNESDAY...BUT H850 TEMPS OF 25+C SHOULD
CAP OFF CONVECTION OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN
TIER. SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES EASTWARD...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BECOMES EAST/WEST ORIENTED AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE CWA AMIDST
ZONAL FLOW...BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH BY THE WEEKEND.  MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE.  THEREFORE HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TARGETED HIGHEST CHANCE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE/LLJ THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS STRETCH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A MARGINAL
25-35KTS...SO CANT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. DAILY
TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION...SO DIDNT STRAY TOO
MUCH FROM GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
FCST IS COMPLICATED BY MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION.  MAIN BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH LIFTING WRMFNT EXTENDING
EAST TO WAST ACRS THE STATE.  WILL GO WITH CB REMARK IN TAF SITES
AND EXPECT THE MAIN AREA TO BE NORTH OF KDSM AND OTM...AND SOUTH OF
REMAINDER.  CDFNT WILL MOVE INTO NWRN IA TNGT WITH A MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF TSRA.  TRIED TO TIME THE BEST CHC FOR TSRA IN A TEMPO
PD...WITH A BROAD AREA OF VCTS AS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE DIFFUSE MOVING
AS IT MOVES THRU.  WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME MVFR CIGS MOVE INTO THE
KMCW AREA SUN MORNING POST FROPA.  THINKING IS THEY WILL BREAKUP
BEFORE GETTING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CASS-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA
-MARION-MONROE-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MS JUL 11
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MS JUL 11
EXTENDED...BEITLICH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
536 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-242245-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-
536 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY SUNSET AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER WITH HIGH WIND BEING MOST
LIKELY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS A SECONDARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE MINNESOTA BORDER DURING THE EARLY
STAGES OF THE THUNDERSTORM LINE DEVELOPMENT.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS OR TIMING...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER
IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY NEEDED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND AGAIN OFF AND ON THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

IAZ070>075-081>086-092>097-242245-
CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-
MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
536 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE DES
MOINES RIVER BASIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS OR TIMING...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER
IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY ON AND
OFF THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
204 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N APLINGTON           42.65N 92.88W
07/22/2011                   BUTLER             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTED FOR TIME... HOUSE ROOF PARTIALLY RIPPED OFF...6
            OUT BUILDINGS DESTROYED WITH SIGNIFICANT TREE
            DAMAGE...TIME REPORTED BY WITNESS

&&

JJOHNSON