Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
225 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
STRONG FORCING FROM AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTO A WEAK
TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WHICH QUICKLY DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING AS SKIES CLEARED AND COLD AIR ALOFT ADVECTED IN FROM THE NW.
SYNOPTICALLY THERE IS A VERY STRONG JET STREAM ORIENTED W/E FROM THE
WEST COAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN ND
ROTATING A STRONG SHRT WAVE AROUND THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS THE FORCING
MECHANISM FOR THE CONVECTION. THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE ALLOWING
FOR A MODERATE TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS IS SHOWING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND
ANYWHERE FROM 30-40 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WITH STRONG SHEAR
VALUES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THE
BACKED WINDS NEAR THE SFC IN THROUGH ERN/NERN MN AND AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR ARE PRODUCING THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES IN THE DLH CWA...AND
THEREFORE THE ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE T-STORMS.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THE MAIN S/W TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AND COMBINE WITH THE MAIN SFC TROUGH TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

BY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE
EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
TO INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TOMORROW NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY REGION. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
ELEVATED...BUT SOME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP AND DESTABILIZE ALOFT.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MON NIGHT EARLY TUE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL S/W MOVE THROUGH AND FIRE OFF ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER PATTERN CALMS DOWN LATE
TUESDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS SETTLE IN.

.EXTENDED...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FA TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME ISOLD SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW AS MODELS DIFFER IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE FA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALLOWING A
RETURN FLOW TO ESTABLISH. MODEL DIFFERENCES RETURN AT THIS JUNCTURE
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A CONSENSUS APPROACH WARRANTS A MENTION POPS
EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
VCNTY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MVFR CIGS...GUSTY SFC
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  68  49  71 /  40  10  30  60
INL  44  70  47  72 /  40  10  10  70
BRD  49  71  53  82 /  20  10  50  60
HYR  51  71  54  83 /  30  20  50  60
ASX  47  71  47  73 /  40  10  30  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
EXTENDED....GSF
AVIATION...GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
232 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-291030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
232 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PRICE COUNTY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY EVENING. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE SOUTH OF A CASS LAKE TO
TWIN PORTS TO IRON RIVER LINE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS...WITH POSSIBLE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MONDAY MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA. AREAS OF FOG MAY BECOME DENSE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

LSZ121-140>148-291030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
232 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...WITH POSSIBLE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. AREAS OF FOG MAY BECOME DENSE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN.

TENTINGER

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
146 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

MNZ010-018-281915-
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ITASCA-
146 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WEST OF CRAIGVILLE...

AT 143 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF EFFIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WEAK ROTATION OR BRIEF FUNNEL
CLOUDS... UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL... WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND DOWNPOURS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EFFIE...              CRAIGVILLE...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4809 9355 4784 9343 4782 9388 4793 9393

LAMERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
158 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

MNZ019-281930-
CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
158 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFYING NEAR COTTON...

AT 157 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MELRUDE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MARKHAM...            WHITEFACE RESERVOIR...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4745 9206 4724 9193 4711 9245 4728 9256

LAMERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
204 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

MNZ011-019-281940-
CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-NORTH ST. LOUIS-
204 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

...STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MOVING OVER NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY...

AT 202 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BLACK DUCK LAKE TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAKINEN...MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

EVELETH AIRPORT RECORDED A WIND GUST TO 38 MPH AT 153 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  VERMILLION LAKE...    AURORA...             ECHO LAKE...
  WAHLSTEN...           TOWER...              MESABA...
  HOYT LAKES...         EMBARRASS...          BUYCK...
  TROUT LAKE...         SOUDAN...             CRANE LAKE...
  SKIBO...              RIDGE...              BEAR ISLAND LAKE...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4835 9201 4753 9179 4731 9249 4818 9293
      4833 9243 4825 9237 4825 9229 4833 9231
      4836 9229 4838 9206

LAMERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
219 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

MNZ010-281945-
KOOCHICHING-
219 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LITTLEFORK...

AT 215 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LITTLEFORK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF LITTLEFORK.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WEAK ROTATION OR BRIEF FUNNEL
CLOUDS...UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PELLAND...            RAY...                ERICKSBURG...
  INTERNATIONAL FALLS...                      RANIER...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4863 9313 4864 9312 4863 9310 4824 9310
      4816 9351 4837 9377 4853 9359 4855 9348
      4859 9348 4861 9345 4865 9328

LAMERS

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