Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1236 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS.
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
VCNTY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MVFR CIGS...GUSTY SFC
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED FOR EARLY MORNING
WORDING IN THE ZFP...AND INGESTED LATEST OBS AND OUTPUT FROM THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION STILL ON
TRACK TODAY OVER NRN MN...AND SPREADING INTO NW WI LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL SHOWING
POSITIVE VALUES FOR LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH FAIRLY LOW 50 DBZ
HGTS...AROUND 17-18K FT...FOR POTENTIALLY SVR HAIL...AND VERY
FAVORABLE MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN THE BNDRY LAYER CAPABLE OF BRINGING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC VIA T-STORM DOWNDRAFTS. COULD SEE
AN UPGRADE IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK LATE THIS MORNING TO A SLGT
RISK FOR PARTS OF THE DLH CWA. SO...THE MAIN RISKS OF SVR WX THIS
AFTERNOON THEN WOULD INCLUDE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH...T-STORM WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN ROUGHLY FROM KINL TO KHIB TO KDLH TO
KRCX. VSBYS AND CEILINGS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN
AREA MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUN CAN WORK ON LIFTING
AND MIXING OUT THESE LOWER CEILINGS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG
WITH SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER
TONIGHT...AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011/

A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG UPPER JET WITH 140KT ISOTACH AT 30H
PLOWING ACROSS CTRL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. MID LVL CLOSED LOW
OVER ND IS SLOWLY EDGING EAST AS PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY. AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROF IS EJECTING EAST FROM ND INTO MN. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS SPREADING ACROSS LOW LVL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
GENERATING AN AREA OF PRECIP. REMOVED THUNDER FROM GRIDS THROUGH
EARLY MORNING AS LGT STRIKES ARE NOT EVIDENT AND LATEST SPC SREF
CPTP HAS VERY LOW PROBABILITIES.

TODAY...AREA OF RAIN SHIFTS NE INTO ARROWHEAD/NRN CWA THROUGH
MORNING HRS. LIMITED INSTABILITY SO HAVE JUST RW AT THIS
POINT...EXCEPT NWRN CORNER OF CWA AFTER 15Z. INITIAL SFC
BDRY/WIND SHIFT LINE DAMPENS OUT BY 18Z LEAVING MOST OF CWA IN LOW
LVL SW FLOW. MIXING LYR SHOULD DEEPEN TO 5K FT OVER SRN THIRD OF
CWA BY AFTN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS BY
AFTERNOON AND MAKE IT A BIT MORE DIFFICULT FOR ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. 85H JET INCREASE TO 30/35KT ACROSS CTRL CWA ALONG WITH
INCREASING LL MSTR TRANSPORT. LATEST FCST OF DEEP LYR
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME ISO SVR MAY DEVELOP WITH HAIL/WIND
PRIMARY THREAT. SPC SREF CALIBRATED SVR PRODUCTS SUGGEST
INCREASING CHANCE AFTER 21Z OVER MOST OF MN ZONES SO HAVE INCLUDED
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN ZFP. SIGNIFICANT WARM UP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
AROUND TWIN PORTS TODAY AS OFFSHORE BDRY LYR WINDS DEVELOP.
FARTHER NORTH...ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN WITH COOLER TEMPS.

TONIGHT...EVENING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE BY 6Z AS SFC/MID LVL LOW
WEAKENS AND INSTABILITY LESSENS. RAISED POPS A BIT FROM PREVIOUS
GRIDS AS LATEST NWP SUGGESTS LINGERING QPF. MAY SEE SOME FG/BR BY
MORNING.

TOMORROW...LARGE SCALE CHANGES AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER RRV
AND BDRY LYR WARMS UNDER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. STILL SOME
POTENTIAL ISSUES WITH POPS OVER SE CORNER OF CWA AS LL THETAE AXIS
WILL LINGER AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE RW/TRW BY AFTN.
OTHERWISE MARINE LAYER WILL BE HELD OFFSHORE FOR THE MOST PART
EXCEPT COASTAL COOK COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

EXTENDED...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

DEEP TROUGH/LOW ALOFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. A STRONG
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY 12Z TUESDAY. A STRONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND IS FORECAST
INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO PUSH NORTH OF
OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONTAL LOCATION FORECAST IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT ACROSS OUR CWA AS WE SHOULD SEE A STRONG MARINE AIR MASS
PUSH INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES...AND THAT USUALLY DELAYS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT. WE DID KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...AND SPREAD THEM
NORTH MONDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH-WEST MINNESOTA COUNTIES. STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED MONDAY...MAINLY OVER OUR MINNESOTA
ZONES...AND WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. THERE IS A CONCERN ABOUT
THE CWA BECOMING CAPPED ON MONDAY WITH 700MB TEMPS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 10-12C...BUT WE THINK CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING JUST
AHEAD OF THIS CAP AND WE DON'T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO DIMINISH POPS.
WE KEPT SOME LIKELY POPS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR MN ZONES MONDAY DUE TO
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST AND STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN CWA AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY...AND COULD LAST INTO
THURSDAY. WE DID NOT DROP POPS FOR THURSDAY YET...AS WE WILL WAIT
FOR A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY. ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM AIR WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP THEN.

QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
NEARS...COULD GET AROUND 80 IN OUR FAR SOUTH...WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  68  49  71 /  40  10  30  60
INL  44  70  47  72 /  40  10  10  70
BRD  49  71  53  82 /  20  10  50  60
HYR  51  71  54  83 /  30  20  50  40
ASX  47  71  47  73 /  40  10  30  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
422 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-291030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
422 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE
WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PRICE COUNTY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY EVENING. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE SOUTH OF A CASS LAKE TO
TWIN PORTS TO IRON RIVER LINE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS...WITH POSSIBLE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MONDAY MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA. AREAS OF FOG MAY BECOME DENSE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

LSZ121-140>148-291030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
422 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...WITH POSSIBLE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. AREAS OF FOG MAY BECOME DENSE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN.

CANNON

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

MNZ010-281700-
KOOCHICHING-
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

...RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHWEST KOOCHICHING
COUNTY...

AT 1125 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF MIZPAH...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GEMMELL BY 1135 AM...
  MARGIE BY NOON...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4833 9397 4802 9356 4785 9432 4799 9443

BJT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
124 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

MNZ010-011-281900-
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-
124 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

...DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM IN WESTERN KOOCHICHING COUNTY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY...

AT 120 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF NETT LAKE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS...HALF INCH DIAMETER
HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NETT LAKE BY 135 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4844 9315 4827 9276 4803 9318 4818 9349

TENTINGER