Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Duluth, MN

July 30, 2011Ashland County, Bayfield County, Sawyer County, Wisconsin

NWS Duluth, MN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 30, 2011, 9:14 PM CDT for Ashland County, Bayfield County, Sawyer County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 21 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 30, 2011, 9:14 PM CDT (02:14 UTC)
Expired: Jul 30, 2011, 9:35 PM CDT
In force: 21 min
Issued by: NWS Duluth, MN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Ashland County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Sawyer County, WI

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 30, 5:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 261 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2387 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -23 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1239 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 58 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 176 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.8
Supercell composite: 8.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 30, 6:49 PM CDT, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 30, 6:49 PM CDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS STRONGEST OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST THERE. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...LEADING TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.

ON SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THERE COULD BE A
FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO DULUTH...BUT INCLUDING MUCH OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011/

DISCUSSION...MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS IS SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AS OF 330 PM...THE STORMS HAD MOVED EAST OUT OF THE CWA WITH DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THINGS HAD STABILIZED SOMEWHAT
BEHIND THE INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WERE
DESTABILIZING ACROSS NW MN. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS NW MN
AND THERE WERE SOME AGITATED CU ACROSS NW MN. ANOTHER AREA OF CU
WAS ACROSS WC MN. SPC JUST ISSUED A NEW MCD FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
AND SW OF THE CWA. THINGS SHOULD START TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN
THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND MAY THEN MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH CONVECTION...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
PINPOINTING SPECIFIC AREAS OF EXPECTED QPF. WILL BASICALLY FOLLOW
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED/
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD THIS EVENING AND UPDATE TO HIGHER
POPS AS THINGS SHAPE UP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP MOST IN THE NW
ZONES...AND LEAST IN NW WI. STILL A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING BASED ON SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INFORMATION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END IN THE
PRECIPITATION FROM NW TO SE. COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTH OR IN NW WI. THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION COMES BACK INTO THE PICTURE CWA WIDE LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE A
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH ALL
MAJOR MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAIN.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THAT PERIOD.

EXTENDED...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL KEEP THE UPPER PLAINS IN A
REGION OF UNSETTLED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHORT WAVES TO TRACK EAST OVER THE NORTHLAND AND
TRIGGER SHRA/TSTMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF ANY WAVES KEPT LONG TERM DRY ATTM WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE KHYR SITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PUT SOME LOWER VISBYS IN FOR
KBRD AND KHYR OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  84  58  82 /  50  10  10  30
INL  51  81  50  84 /  30  10  10  50
BRD  64  87  64  88 /  60  10  10  40
HYR  66  90  58  91 /  50  20  10  20
ASX  67  86  56  86 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAP
EXTENDED....GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 30, 3:53 PM CDT, 5 hours 21 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
353 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-311030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
353 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
IS WEST OF A LINE FROM BAUDETTE...TO FLOODWOOD TO SHELL LAKE.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-311030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
353 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY.

DAP

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 30, 4:58 PM CDT, 4 hours 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
458 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             1 SSW WEBB LAKE         46.00N 92.14W
07/30/2011  M0.25 INCH       BURNETT            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGOHDE

Special weather statement, Jul 30, 5:30 PM CDT, 3 hours 44 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
530 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

MNZ038-WIZ006>008-302330-
BURNETT-PINE-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
530 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

...STRONG STORMS IN BURNETT AND WASHBURN COUNTIES...

AT 529 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCKENZIE LAKE...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SPOONER BY 540 PM...
  LAMPSON AND TREGO BY 545 PM...
  EARL BY 555 PM...
  SPRINGBROOK BY 605 PM...
  STANBERRY BY 610 PM...
  STONE LAKE BY 625 PM...
  HAYWARD BY 630 PM...

OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF BURNETT
AND WASHBURN COUNTIES AS WELL...AND THEY COULD ALSO BRING HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4616 9147 4571 9145 4581 9259 4616 9257

DAP

Special weather statement, Jul 30, 5:39 PM CDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
539 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

MNZ025-033>036-302345-
CROW WING-NORTH CASS-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-SOUTH CASS-
539 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

...STRONG STORMS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...

AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LOWER WHITEFISH LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MERRIFIELD AND BRAINERD BY 545 PM...
  CROSSLAKE AND FIFTY LAKES BY 550 PM...
  RIVERTON AND WOODROW BY 600 PM...
  EMILY AND OUTING BY 605 PM...
  WOLFORD AND IRONTON BY 610 PM...
  CROSBY BY 615 PM...
  LITTLE PINE AND DEERWOOD BY 620 PM...

OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERED MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CASS
COUNTIES AND CROW WING COUNTIES AND WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION AND INTO AITKIN COUNTY.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4680 9480 4682 9467 4705 9467 4697 9336
      4615 9336 4615 9345 4624 9344 4624 9380
      4615 9382 4615 9436 4624 9440 4628 9435
      4631 9440 4630 9455 4635 9466 4634 9473
      4638 9478

DAP

Special weather statement, Jul 30, 6:32 PM CDT, 2 hours 42 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

WIZ006>008-310030-
BURNETT-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

...STRONG STORMS OVER WASHBURN AND SAWYER COUNTIES...

AT 627 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TREGO...AND A SECOND STORM NEAR RICE
LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGBROOK...        STANBERRY...          BIRCHWOOD...
LITTLE SISSABAGAMA LAKE...                  HAYWARD...
EDGEWATER...          NORTHWOODS BEACH...   LITTLE ROUND LAKE...
RESERVE...            CHIEF LAKE...         COUDERAY..

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4564 9216 4608 9219 4605 9094 4563 9096

GRANING

Local storm report, Jul 30, 6:53 PM CDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             MERRIFIELD              46.47N 94.17W
07/30/2011  M0.88 INCH       CROW WING          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 E BRAINERD            46.35N 94.13W
07/30/2011                   CROW WING          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGOHDE

Special weather statement, Jul 30, 6:59 PM CDT, 2 hours 15 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Duluth, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 30, 7:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Carlton, Pine	11 min
Jul 30, 8:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Pine	45 min
Jul 30, 8:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Bayfield, Douglas	46 min
Jul 30, 9:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Washburn	16 min
Jul 30, 9:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Burnett	43 min
Jul 30, 9:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Washburn	40 min
Jul 30, 10:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Price	34 min
Jul 30, 11:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Price	30 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.