Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
229 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM CONCERN ON EXPECTED CONVECTION ALONG TRIPLE PT/WARM FRONT
LINGERING OVER THE SRN ZONES OF THE DLH CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT 200 PM CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR RANGED
FROM 72/60 AT KRZN...TO 75/59 AT KHYR...AND 73/59 AT KPBH.
LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WARM
FRONT...WERE REPORTING GUSTY NE WINDS AND A MARINE INFLUENCE
RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE MIDDLE 40S. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO DAYS 1-3 FCST. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT FOR QPF IN LINE WITH LATEST HIGH- RES
MODELS.

THE 12Z WRF-NMM APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CONVECTION AS IT WAS
THE ONLY HIGH RES SOLUTION THAT PICKED UP ON THE MCS THAT DEVELOPED
NEAR WALKER/CASS LAKE THIS MORNING AND TRACKED ACROSS THE IRON
RANGE/BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF NE MN...CONTINUING OVER ONTARIO.
ALTHOUGH A SPARSELY POPULATED AREA...THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS
OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STORM. THE WRF-NMM SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS CONVECTION INCREASES RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE
NEAR THE SFC LOW/PINE COUNTY...AROUND 21-22Z THEN SPREADS EAST
OVER WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE INTO
BAYFILED/ASHLAND COUNTY...AND EXITS OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR/ONTARIO BY MON MORNING. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL BE
FOUND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT...TAPPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WED THRU SUN...
LOOKS LIKE A WET PD SETTING UP FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH SLGT OR LOW
CHC POPS ALMOST EVERY DAY...ESPCLY OVR THE SRN ZONES. PD STARTS OUT
WITH A CFNT PUSHING THRU OUR CWA WED/WED NITE/THU. POPS DIMINISH
FROM NW TO SE DURING THIS PD...WITH A MENTION OF A RA/SN DURING THE
OVNGT HRS. THE FRONT BECMS QSTNRY THU/THU NITE...THEN BEGINS TO
MIGRATE BACK TO THE N AS A WFNT CONNECTED TO A STRONG SFC LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVR THE SRN PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGMT FOR THE THU-SUN PD ON POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOW. SOME OF
THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH OVR CN
FRI/SAT. DRY NERLY FLOW OUT OF SUCH HIGHS HAVE HISTORICALLY LIMITED
THE NWD PUSH OF MSTR/PRECIP AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NEWD TWRD THE CENT
GRT LKS. FOR NOW...SLGT POPS IN THE NW INCRSG TO CHC POPS OVR THE SE
SEEMED PRUDENT. LEFT SUN DRY AS HIGH PRESS REPLACES THE LOW. WITH NO
STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR DURING THE PD...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIG
WARMUPS. KEPT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S OR
LOWER 30S. MENTIONED SN OR A RA/SN MIX FOR EACH NIGHT TIME PD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011/

AVIATION...UPDATE FOR 18Z TAFS
IFR CONDITIONS OR BELOW WILL CONT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN/EVE AS
LOW PRESS SYSTEM MOVES FROM SWRN MN TO CENT LK SUP BY MIDNIGHT.
AREAS OF FG AND SCT SHRA WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME
STORMS COULD BE SVR THIS EVE...ESPCLY OVR NWRN WI. LOOK FOR
CIG/VSBY TO IMPROVE OVNGT AND MON MRNG AS HIGH PRESS AND DRIER
AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE W. STRONG GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL
CONT THRU THE REST OF THE TAF PD...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING MON AFTN.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  52  31  59 /  70  20  10  10
INL  34  52  30  61 /  80  10  10  10
BRD  38  56  34  65 /  70  10  10  10
HYR  43  54  31  65 /  70  40  10  10
ASX  40  55  33  63 /  80  60  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GRANING
EXTENDED/AVIATION....04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-111030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
641 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THIS MORNING. THEN...IN THE AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM BRAINERD TO ELY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OVER THE WISCONSIN COUNTIES. THE
MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. AREA RIVERS...ALONG WITH SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...AND URBAN AREAS PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE AT RISK
OF FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-111030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
641 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

TENTINGER

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
522 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

WIZ002-003-008-102300-
ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-SAWYER-
522 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING TOWARDS ASHLAND COUNTY...

AT 517 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHIPPEWA LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 65 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CLAM LAKE AND NAMEKAGON BY 535 PM...
  MORSE BY 550 PM...
  MELLEN AND HIGH BRIDGE BY 555 PM...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

THIS STORM IS APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. BE ALERT FOR ANY WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 4597 9136 4653 9077 4633 9054 4625 9055
      4625 9045 4623 9045 4585 9116

LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
558 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             MARENGO                 46.42N 90.82W
04/10/2011  E1.75 INCH       ASHLAND            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALLS IF NOT BIGGER.

&&

SGOHDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
607 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HAIL             ODANAH                  46.60N 90.68W
04/10/2011  M1.25 INCH       ASHLAND            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGOHDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
612 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HAIL             ODANAH                  46.60N 90.68W
04/10/2011  M1.75 INCH       ASHLAND            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGOHDE

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