Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
651 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

.AVIATION...07/02/00Z ISSUANCE...
STRONG COLD FRONT GOING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOCAL VLIFR
IN A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM STC TO DLH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL WINDS TO 65 KNOTS AND LOCAL SHOWERS
OF HAIL TO 4 INCHES DIAMETER. THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL
CONTINUE OUT OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOST OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TILL MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE DULUTH AREA
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH CLOUDS THEN VFR UNDER CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. TO THE WEST...MVFR IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
MN...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND VFR LATE TONIGHT...
CONTINUING SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011/

DISCUSSION...LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR FCST AREA...EXTENDING FROM NEAR CRANE LAKE SSWWD TO
AITKIN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED WITH
TEMPS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 6000 J/KG AND HEAT INDICIES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 95 TO 105. EVEN WITH FAIRLY STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...A CAPPING INVERSION HAS INHIBITED
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING SO FAR TODAY. WE DO EXPECT THE CAP TO
BREAK EVENTUALLY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO SWODY1
ISSUED BY THE SPC. THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE EAST
OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEN THE AREA
OF STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EWD WITH THE FRONT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALL THE MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL MITIGATE
THE STRENGTH OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND FURTHER WEAKEN THE FRONT. RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH WILL DEPART TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD EASTWARD
ABOVE THE MANITOBA LAKES AND ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY BASIN...RESULTING
IN AN INCREASINGLY CHILLY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.  MORE CHILLY
AIR FROM NORTHWEST CANADA WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AND DRY PATTERN AS
A COOL WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW...KEEPS MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  79  52  78 /  60  10  10  10
INL  58  77  47  78 /  30  10  10  10
BRD  59  81  54  81 /  60  10  10  10
HYR  63  83  52  82 /  70  10  10  10
ASX  60  81  52  79 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ038.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EOM
AVIATION...EOM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1059 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-021030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
1059 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MOST
OF THE NORTHLAND. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOWER
90S WILL BE LIKELY...WITH MID 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HEAT INDEX VALUES...FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS AND
PINE COUNTY EAST TO SOUTHERN IRON AND PRICE COUNTY...WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 95 TO 105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND PRODUCE
STORMS LATER TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER
TODAY...AND STAY AWARE OF ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS THAT MAY BE
ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-021030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
1059 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

BERDES

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>