Alert archive / Minnesota / Flash Flood Warnings in 2011

Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Duluth, MN

July 1, 2011Saint Louis County, Minnesota; Douglas County, Wisconsin

NWS Duluth, MN issued this flash flood warning at Jul 1, 2011, 7:27 PM CDT for Saint Louis County, Minnesota; Douglas County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 4 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 1, 2011, 7:27 PM CDT (00:27 UTC)
Expired: Jul 1, 2011, 11:09 PM CDT
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: NWS Duluth, MN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Saint Louis County, MN, Douglas County, WI

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 228 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 13 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -141 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1609 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -41 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 63 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

601 
WGUS53 KDLH 020027
FFWDLH
MNC137-WIC031-020430-
/O.NEW.KDLH.FF.W.0006.110702T0027Z-110702T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
727 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
  SOUTH CENTRAL ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 725 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 
4 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  DULUTH...SUPERIOR...ADOLPH...FOND DU LAC...NEW DULUTH...OLIVER...
  POPLAR...PROCTOR...SOUTH RANGE...WENTWORTH AND WEST DULUTH.

FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SUPERIOR.

LAT...LON 4654 9229 4678 9230 4685 9198 4684 9197
      4679 9207 4673 9204 4669 9196 4671 9176
      4656 9172

$$

BERDES

2 follow-up statements

386 
WGUS73 KDLH 020106
FFSDLH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

MNC137-WIC031-020430-
/O.CON.KDLH.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110702T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. LOUIS MN-DOUGLAS WI-
806 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN DOUGLAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ST. LOUIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 804 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES 
HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
DULUTH...SUPERIOR...ADOLPH...FOND DU LAC...NEW DULUTH...OLIVER...
POPLAR...PROCTOR...SOUTH RANGE...WENTWORTH AND WEST DULUTH.

FLOODING WAS REPORTED SOUTHEAST OF SUPERIOR ON HIGHWAY 53.

LAT...LON 4654 9229 4678 9230 4685 9198 4684 9197
      4679 9207 4673 9204 4669 9196 4671 9176
      4656 9172

$$

BERDES

286 
WGUS73 KDLH 020409
FFSDLH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1109 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

MNC137-WIC031-020423-
/O.CAN.KDLH.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110702T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. LOUIS MN-DOUGLAS WI-
1109 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN DOUGLAS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ST. LOUIS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 4654 9229 4678 9230 4685 9198 4684 9197
      4679 9207 4673 9204 4669 9196 4671 9176
      4656 9172

$$

DAP

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 1, 6:51 PM CDT, 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 1, 6:51 PM CDT, 36 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
651 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

.AVIATION...07/02/00Z ISSUANCE...
STRONG COLD FRONT GOING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOCAL VLIFR
IN A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM STC TO DLH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCAL WINDS TO 65 KNOTS AND LOCAL SHOWERS
OF HAIL TO 4 INCHES DIAMETER. THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL
CONTINUE OUT OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOST OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TILL MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE DULUTH AREA
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH CLOUDS THEN VFR UNDER CLEARING
SKIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. TO THE WEST...MVFR IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
MN...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND VFR LATE TONIGHT...
CONTINUING SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011/

DISCUSSION...LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR FCST AREA...EXTENDING FROM NEAR CRANE LAKE SSWWD TO
AITKIN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED WITH
TEMPS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 6000 J/KG AND HEAT INDICIES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 95 TO 105. EVEN WITH FAIRLY STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...A CAPPING INVERSION HAS INHIBITED
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING SO FAR TODAY. WE DO EXPECT THE CAP TO
BREAK EVENTUALLY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO SWODY1
ISSUED BY THE SPC. THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE EAST
OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEN THE AREA
OF STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EWD WITH THE FRONT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALL THE MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL MITIGATE
THE STRENGTH OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND FURTHER WEAKEN THE FRONT. RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH WILL DEPART TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD EASTWARD
ABOVE THE MANITOBA LAKES AND ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY BASIN...RESULTING
IN AN INCREASINGLY CHILLY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.  MORE CHILLY
AIR FROM NORTHWEST CANADA WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AND DRY PATTERN AS
A COOL WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW...KEEPS MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  79  52  78 /  60  10  10  10
INL  58  77  47  78 /  30  10  10  10
BRD  59  81  54  81 /  60  10  10  10
HYR  63  83  52  82 /  70  10  10  10
ASX  60  81  52  79 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ038.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EOM
AVIATION...EOM

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 1, 10:59 AM CDT, 8 hours 28 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1059 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-021030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
1059 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MOST
OF THE NORTHLAND. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOWER
90S WILL BE LIKELY...WITH MID 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HEAT INDEX VALUES...FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS AND
PINE COUNTY EAST TO SOUTHERN IRON AND PRICE COUNTY...WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 95 TO 105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND PRODUCE
STORMS LATER TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER
TODAY...AND STAY AWARE OF ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS THAT MAY BE
ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-021030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
1059 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

BERDES

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 1, 6:35 PM CDT, 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
635 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HAIL             SUPERIOR                46.70N 92.06W
07/01/2011  M0.88 INCH       DOUGLAS            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            39TH AND US HIGHWAY 2

&&

KK

Local storm report, Jul 1, 7:13 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
713 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             HAWTHORNE               46.50N 91.86W
07/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROUTE 53 AND COUNTY ROAD B

&&

KK

Local storm report, Jul 1, 7:15 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
715 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRANTSBURG              45.78N 92.68W
07/01/2011                   BURNETT            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT.

&&

KK

Local storm report, Jul 1, 7:17 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
717 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     HAIL             2 W MAPLE               46.59N 91.76W
07/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KK

Local storm report, Jul 1, 7:18 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
718 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     HAIL             BRULE                   46.55N 91.58W
07/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KK

Special weather statement, Jul 1, 7:20 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
720 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

MNZ025-033-034-020245-
NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALKER...PINE RIVER...BRAINERD
720 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...HEAVY RAIN WILL CROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA THIS EVENING...

*  AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
   BRAINERD LAKES AND LEECH LAKE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. RAINFALLS
   UP TO HALF AN INCH AN HOUR WILL FALL ACROSS MANY AREAS. EXPECT
   AN OCCASIONAL CLAP OF THUNDER THIS EVENING.

EOM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Duluth, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 1, 7:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Aitkin, Carlton, Pine	52 min
Jul 1, 7:30 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DLH	Pine	30 min
Jul 1, 7:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH		32 min
Jul 1, 8:20 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	DLH		85 min
Jul 1, 8:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Pine	53 min
Jul 1, 9:14 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	DLH		91 min
Jul 1, 9:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Cook	37 min
Jul 1, 9:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Cook	46 min
Jul 1, 10:10 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	DLH		65 min
Jul 1, 7:01 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	DLH	Douglas	4 hr
Jul 1, 7:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Bayfield, Douglas	41 min
Jul 1, 7:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Ashland, Bayfield	38 min
Jul 1, 7:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Douglas	49 min
Jul 1, 7:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Ashland, Bayfield, Burnett, Douglas, Iron, Price and 2 more	58 min
Jul 1, 8:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Ashland, Bayfield, Douglas	60 min
Jul 1, 8:18 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	DLH	Bayfield, Douglas	3 hr
Jul 1, 8:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Ashland, Bayfield, Iron, Price, Sawyer	65 min
Jul 1, 9:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Ashland, Bayfield, Burnett, Douglas, Price, Sawyer and 1 more	59 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Minnesota, 2011 Flash Flood Warnings in Wisconsin, 2011 Every flash flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.