Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE ADJACENT
NORTHERN PLAINS WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WAS STILL IN PLACE FROM
KANSAS SOUTHWARD. A SECONDARY BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH
OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TOWARD SCOTT CITY
AND HAYS. UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WERE
EXTREMELY WARM WITH -6C, -14C AND -29C RESPECTIVELY AT 500, 400
AND 300MB. THESE TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY AT AND ABOVE 400MB, ARE
ARE ABOUT AS WARM AS YOU WILL EVER SEE FOR THIS AREA. IN
ADDITION, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WAS EXTREMELY WEAK. A FEW PULSE-TYPE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALREADY BY 3 PM FROM DODGE CITY
SOUTHWARD TO THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE WHERE CAPPING WAS MINIMAL.
SOUTH OF THE POLAR JET, ANOTHER WEAK JETLET (EITHER A SUBTROPICAL
JET OR WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH JET) WAS POSITIONED FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. GIVEN THE 30-35KT UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JETLET, SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED 1 TO 2 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EACH RUN OF THE NAM IS BULLISH ON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE NAM EVEN DEVELOPS THIS
ACTIVITY AS FAR SOUTH AS DODGE CITY. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALREADY HAD 30-40 POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AND THESE WERE JUST TWEAKED A BIT HIGHER IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

BY SUNDAY, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND MOST LIKELY
CLOSE TO DODGE CITY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MINIMAL CAPPING,
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 19Z. JUST LIKE TODAY, THESE
STORMS WILL BE PULSE TYPE FOR THE MOST PART. BUT ONCE AGAIN, SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
STILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
JETLET. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY DUE TO THE
EXPECTED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WE STILL COULD SEE NEAR 100F
TEMPERATURES IN DODGE CITY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY. BUT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO NEAR 105 IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.

BY MONDAY, THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS OR PERHAPS EVEN IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN THE MEAN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSITION. THIS FRONT WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS BY
LATER MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS MONDAY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. WITH A SLIGHT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT ON THE "COOL" SIDE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 99 OR 100F. EXACTLY HOW WARM WE GET MONDAY MAY
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY.

DAYS 3-7...

AS TUESDAY COMES AROUND, THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
BACK FROM THE EAST INTO OUR CWA.  THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES
TO THE ELEVATED 101-107F RANGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  ON
THURSDAY, THERE IS A TROUGH COMING INTO OUR NORTHWEST AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY SLIDE INTO THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS WOULD
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, AND MAYBE JUST A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE ON
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONVERGES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  WILL STAY WITH THE 30 POPS FOR NOW  ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN CWA.  QPF COULD BE MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, AS THE GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING AN INCH IN
OUR NORTHWEST, BUT HAVE STAYED ON THE LOWER END OF QPF VALUES.  WE
HAVE NOT HAD MUCH RAIN ANYWHERE LATELY, AND WITH THE HOT REGIME SET
UP, DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE MAX TEMPS MAY SAG JUST A LITTLE FRIDAY GIVEN THE
PRECIP CHANCES AND THE FRONT STRADDLING OUR CWA NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN
CASE THE FRONT EXITS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. POPS WERE LOWERED TO LESS
THAN SLIGHT CHANCES SATURDAY AND BEYOND (DAYS 8-10). THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NORTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR CWA
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

I DID BUMP TEMPERATURES UP FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH SHOW THE MONSTER HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLIDE A LITTLE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A TROUGH TO SLIDE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEN THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS RIGHT BACK
IN FROM THE EAST SATURDAY, WITH THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A 597DAM
HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z SUNDAY.

LOOKING BEYOND DAY 7 (SATURDAY), THE EXTENDED MODELS DEPICT US
GOING INTO A HOT REGIME AGAIN, WITH THE GFS SHOWING A 596 HIGH OVER
ENID, OK MONDAY AND THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A 598 HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER MISSOURI MONDAY. THE HEAT WILL PERSIST...LONGER THAN
MOST PEOPLE WANT.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE MOST PART, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH 24 HOURS.
CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE ALREADY POPPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SKC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SCT050-060 AND POSSIBLY BKN050CB FOR
DURING THE 22-02Z TIME FRAME.  ALSO, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE DDC TAF SITE DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10G20KTS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST AFTER DARK, AND RUN AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  99  72 101 /  40  40  20  10
GCK  72  97  70  99 /  50  30  20  10
EHA  71  97  69  98 /  40  30  20  20
LBL  74 100  70 101 /  30  30  20  20
HYS  75  97  72  97 /  40  20  20  10
P28  79 106  75 104 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ031-
046-065-066-081-090.

&&

FN24/12/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
357 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-240900-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
357 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011 /257 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM ELLIS TO PAWNEE AND
FROM STAFFORD TO BARBER COUNTIES. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ELKHART TO JOHNSON CITY. ANY THUNDERSTORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP LATE TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ALSO
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BETWEEN 6 AND 11 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. A FEW STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL THE
SIZE OF NICKELS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS TO THE SHERIFFS OFFICES
WHO WILL THEN RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
435 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

KSZ088-232215-
CLARK-
435 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLARK COUNTY...

AT 429 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ACRES...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. ANOTHER
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLARK STATE LAKE...MOVING NORTH
AT 10 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH BOTH OF THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3745 10007 3745 9957 3701 9956 3702 10007
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 200DEG 4KT 3712 9989

18