Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Dodge City, KS

845 
WWUS53 KDDC 230258
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
958 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

KSC175-189-230330-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-110723T0330Z/
STEVENS KS-SEWARD KS-
958 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEWARD AND
EASTERN STEVENS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 953 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF LIBERAL...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LIBERAL...
  WOODS...
  KISMET...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN STEVENS AND SEWARD COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE
SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3702 10125 3737 10119 3725 10064 3699 10096
      3699 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 210DEG 16KT 3708 10102
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

18

899 
WWUS53 KDDC 230319
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1019 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

KSC175-189-230329-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-110723T0330Z/
STEVENS KS-SEWARD KS-
1019 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SEWARD AND EASTERN STEVENS
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH 
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3702 10125 3737 10119 3725 10064 3699 10096
      3699 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 0319Z 210DEG 16KT 3716 10096

$$

18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
325 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY TIED TO THIS
SYSTEM WAS PIVOTING NORTHEAST FROM THE CHIMNEY OF IDAHO INTO
NORTHWESTERN MONTANA RESULTING IN A DECENT PRESSURE FALL FIELD OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA.  THIS IS ABOUT THE EXTENT OF EXCITEMENT ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE.  CLOSER TO WESTERN KANSAS...A PLUME OF 500-700MB
CONTINUED FROM NEW MEXICO NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA TO IOWA.  BY MID AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WAS
SLOWLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS REMNANT WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LATENT HEAT
FLUXES FROM EVAPORATION (IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE IT
RAINED) WERE LOSING THEIR STEAM WITH CONTINUED INTENSE LATE JULY
INSOLATION.  A DEEP CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DEEP MIXING WAS UNDERWAY AND A
FEW INCIPIENT...BUT VERY SMALL ECHOES COULD BE FOUND ON RADAR NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA-KANSAS BORDER NEAR COLDWATER TO BUTTERMILK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE CUMULUS FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE DDC FORECAST AREA.
WILL BROADBRUSH THE AREA WITH 20 POPS BUT STILL THINK THE BEST
CHANCE...WHERE 30-40 POPS EXIST...WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTIVE
EPISODE.  A SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) MAY EVOLVE IN
THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION AS LAST NIGHT...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR
THE 30-40 POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A JOHNSON TO GARDEN
CITY TO NESS CITY LINE.  TOMORROW...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
WASH OUT BY LATE MORNING GIVING WAY TO BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESPONDING TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LEE TROUGH.  FRONTOGENESIS WILL
INCREASE BY AFTERNOON/EVENING TOMORROW FROM EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  THIS WILL BE THE PREFERRED AREA FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.  WILL AGAIN BE GOING WITH
30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MORE
ORGANIZED MCS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  AS FAR AS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT IS CONCERNED...PERSISTENCE IS
THE FORECAST METHOD OF CHOICE HERE...AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH
DEVIATION FROM THE TODAYS TEMPERATURES...AND AS A RESULT WILL KEEP
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING GOING FOR ONE MORE DAY TOMORROW OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES (FROM HAYS SOUTH TO STAFFORD TO MEDICINE
LODGE).  ON SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TIED TO THE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (AS DISCUSSED IN THE SYNOPSIS) WILL BE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
ARKANSAS RIVER.  THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY STALL OUT GIVEN THE
ABSENCE OF CONTINUED PRESSURE RISES FROM THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AS
THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE MOVES QUICKLY OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  WILL BE GOING WITH 20 TO 30 POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER LATE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THIS
WEAKENING FRONT...AND A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE 100-DEGREE HEAT ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA (EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER).

DAYS 3-7...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. BEFORE THEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN KANSAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE LOWER 100S
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. I
ALSO HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRONT THAT
STALLED OUT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS LAST NIGHT AND THE EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LAYERS TO BE WARM AND
HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF CONVECTION OUT OF THE GRIDS. HIGHS IN THE MID
100S ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. IN
FACT...THE FAR EAST FA MAY AGAIN FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 105. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE HEAT.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND POSITION ITSELF CLOSE TO OUR
AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONT WILL TREK BEFORE STALLING OUT. THE NAM HAS IT PUSHING THROUGH
OUR AREA WHERE AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT STALLING OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. I HAVE WENT WITH PERSISTENCE HAVING THE FRONT
STALLING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA LIKE THE LAST
COUPLE OF FRONTS HAVE DONE. I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT THIS
MAY HAVE TO BE CHANGED IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS LOOK TO PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA. I HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SINCE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERED VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS CLOSE TO CONVECTION
WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD INCREASE THE SPEED AND DIRECTION OF
THE WIND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75 105  75 101 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  72 104  73 100 /  30  20  20  20
EHA  71 104  72  99 /  30  20  20  20
LBL  74 105  74 100 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  71 104  75  97 /  30  30  30  30
P28  80 108  80 102 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
065-066-081-090.

&&

FN25/42/42

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
326 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-230830-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
326 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011 /226 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY FROM
ELLIS TO PAWNEE AND FROM STAFFORD TO BARBER COUNTIES. SEE WEATHER
MESSAGE FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ELKHART TO HAYS.
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 58 MPH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING FROM HAYS TO
PRATT. MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENINGS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS TO THE SHERIFFS OFFICES WHO
WILL THEN RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

SUGDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
702 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NE MCCRACKEN          38.65N 99.50W
07/22/2011  E60.00 MPH       RUSH               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MSCOTT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
803 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

KSZ084-085-230145-
MORTON-STEVENS-
803 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORTON AND WESTERN STEVENS
COUNTIES...

AT 758 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROLLA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. A SECOND THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH
OF ELKHART.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

RESIDENTS IN MORTON AND WESTERN STEVENS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF WILBURTON AND ROLLA...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3700 10199 3739 10196 3727 10137 3699 10159
      3699 10186
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 206DEG 11KT 3707 10167

UMSCHEID

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
909 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

KSZ078-230300-
FORD-
909 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FORD COUNTY...

AT 907 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DODGE CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3787 10006 3776 9977 3760 10007 3767 10014
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 217DEG 18KT 3767 10005

18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
918 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 SSW DODGE CITY        37.65N 100.07W
07/22/2011  E60.00 MPH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

            WINDS WERE ESTIMATED BY THE HOMEOWNER BETWEEN 55 AND 65
            MPH.

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
927 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSW DODGE CITY        37.66N 100.05W
07/22/2011  E65.00 MPH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

&&

MSCOTT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
937 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

KSZ085-086-230330-
SEWARD-STEVENS-
937 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN STEVENS AND SEWARD
COUNTIES...

AT 935 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TYRONE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF LIBERAL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3702 10125 3737 10119 3725 10064 3699 10096
      3699 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 221DEG 13KT 3702 10108

18