Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
148 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MOST OF THE ATTENTION WAS PAID TO THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
AS A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CWFA.
LATEST REFLECTIVITY KDDC SCANS SHOW THAT A ROTATING SUPERCELL HAS
ALREADY FORMED ACROSS MORTON AND STEVENS COUNTY. EXPECT AERIAL COVERAGE
OF SUPERCELLS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A STRONG
AND POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO EJECTS ACROSS
KANSAS. LATEST HRRR, NAM, RUC, AND THE 4 KM WRF ALL AGREE ON CONVECTION
INCREASING ACROSS THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS
1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE FORMING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY
OF SHEAR PRESENT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS
THAT STUCK AROUND THIS MORNING. OUR EASTERN CWFA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT AS THIS
REGION IS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AND BACKING SURFACE
WINDS. BASED OFF AFOREMENTIONED RADAR TRENDS, THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FURTHER WEST FOR HAIL AND MORE ISOLATED WEAKER TORNADOES. THE 18Z KDDC
RAOB SHOWS A STOUT EML IS STILL PRESENT, HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPS RATES ABOVE THE EML WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SIGNIFICANT CAPE FORMATION. SHORT TERM GRID MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE
TO ADJUST TO RECENT TRENDS. AFTER THE CELLS MOVE OUT LATE THIS EVENING,
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. DID INCREASE
POPS TO THE NW DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS 12Z DATA IS A BIT MORE
LIBERAL WITH QPF. 12Z GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS 30-35 KNOT SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE, HOWEVER, WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY NOW
IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION OF TWO PRODUCTS OUT SIMULTANEOUSLY. IT LOOKS
LIKELY THAT A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY WILL COME INTO FRUITION TOMORROW.
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z
TOMORROW. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO TEMPERATURE
AND OTHER GRIDS. -SUGDEN

DAYS 3-7...

THE PRESSING CURRENT WARNING SITUATION WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH AND
DETAIL OF THIS DISCUSSION.  NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED IN THE EXISTING
GRIDS, AS THEY LOOK IN LINE THE THE ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT WITH THE GFS MODEL.  THERE IS STILL A STRONG WAVE
CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IT WEAKENS FRIDAY, SO THE 20
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEEM APPROPRIATE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN 2 COUNTIES. ALSO FOR MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY) NOW, THERE COULD
BE A DRY LINE SITUATION (SIMILAR TO TODAY) SET UP, WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.  BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SHOW NARROW BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HAVE ONLY BUMPED POPS UP TO 14
PERCENT FOR NOW, AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF ANY HIGHER POPS
ARE NEEDED.  I WOULD HATE TO SPOIL HOLIDAY CAMPERS/TRAVELERS AT THIS
TIME.  NEXT WEDNESDAY, DAY 8, SEEMS A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THIS NEXT
FRIDAY, WITH AN UPPER WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DRAGGING A LOBE OF UPPER INSTABILITY THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HAVE PLACED 18 PERCENT POPS IN OUR NORTHERN 6 COUNTIES AND WENT WITH
TRW- FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL STAY THE SAME,
BASICALLY WARM FROM MONDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...

THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN QUICKLY ERODING AS WARM AIR INVADES
FROM THE SOUTH.  THERE WILL BE STRONG AND VARYING WINDS NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT APPROACHES A TAF SITE.  SINCE IT DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN THE TIME A STORM WILL HIT A TAF SITE, WENT WITH MY BEST GUESS
ON TIMING, BASICALLY FROM 23Z-03Z.  AFTER 03Z, CONVECTION WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  66  47  74 /  50  60  10   0
GCK  56  65  46  75 /  40  70  10   0
EHA  54  70  46  84 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  56  71  47  80 /  30  20   0   0
HYS  57  63  47  71 /  80  70  10   0
P28  61  72  52  74 /  80  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN36/12/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
927 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-251000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
927 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011 /827 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011/

...HIGH RISK FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO
TENNIS-BALL SIZE OR LARGER, AND FOR DANGEROUS TORNADOES, AFTER 4
PM CDT TODAY, EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY TO
ASHLAND. THIS HIGH RISK AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON, TO EAST OF A LINE FROM HAYS TO KINSLEY TO
COLDWATER.

AS A SURFACE LOW ADVANCES EAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS, A DRY
LINE WILL PLUNGE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE, INCREASING THE DANGER OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADO
FORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE MAIN
HAZARD FOR THESE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION STRONG NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING NEAR INTERSTATE 70. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 4 PM CDT EAST OF A LINE FROM
WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND LINE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
122 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     HAIL             8 S ROLLA               37.01N 101.63W
05/24/2011  E1.00 INCH       MORTON             KS   PUBLIC

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
123 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     HAIL             8 S ROLLA               37.01N 101.63W
05/24/2011  E1.00 INCH       MORTON             KS   PUBLIC

&&
PEA SIZE HAIL WAS COVERING THE GROUND.

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
151 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 PM     HAIL             6 NW HUGOTON            37.23N 101.43W
05/24/2011  E1.00 INCH       STEVENS            KS   PUBLIC

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     TORNADO          21 NE HUGOTON           37.39N 101.08W
05/24/2011                   HASKELL            KS   PUBLIC

            THE CALLER REPORTED SEEING A SMALL TORNADO NORTH OF HER,
            WITH DEBRIS CLEARLY ROTATING.

&&

BURKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     HAIL             4 N RYUS                37.56N 101.12W
05/24/2011  E1.00 INCH       GRANT              KS   911 CALL CENTER

&&

MRUSSELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KSZ061-242045-
HAMILTON-
200 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY...

AT 157 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTH OF COOLIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

RESIDENTS IN SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
SYRACUSE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3792 10205 3793 10205 3807 10202 3800 10154
      3774 10181 3774 10205 3790 10206
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 208DEG 23KT 3781 10197

AWJ