Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Dodge City, KS

149 
WWUS53 KDDC 242208
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KSC083-145-242218-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-110524T2245Z/
PAWNEE KS-HODGEMAN KS-
508 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN HODGEMAN AND
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3860 9963 3853 9949 3827 9965 3826 9992
      3844 10006
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 237DEG 21KT 3828 9984

$$

KSC135-165-242245-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-110524T2245Z/
RUSH KS-NESS KS-
508 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
NESS AND WEST CENTRAL RUSH COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 507 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS AND EXTREMELY
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTH OF NESS CITY...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NESS CITY...
  BAZINE...
  ALEXANDER...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN NESS AND WESTERN RUSH COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 9963 3853 9949 3827 9965 3826 9992
      3844 10006
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 237DEG 21KT 3828 9984
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 4.25IN

$$

SUGDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
148 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MOST OF THE ATTENTION WAS PAID TO THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
AS A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CWFA.
LATEST REFLECTIVITY KDDC SCANS SHOW THAT A ROTATING SUPERCELL HAS
ALREADY FORMED ACROSS MORTON AND STEVENS COUNTY. EXPECT AERIAL COVERAGE
OF SUPERCELLS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A STRONG
AND POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO EJECTS ACROSS
KANSAS. LATEST HRRR, NAM, RUC, AND THE 4 KM WRF ALL AGREE ON CONVECTION
INCREASING ACROSS THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS
1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE FORMING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY
OF SHEAR PRESENT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS
THAT STUCK AROUND THIS MORNING. OUR EASTERN CWFA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT AS THIS
REGION IS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AND BACKING SURFACE
WINDS. BASED OFF AFOREMENTIONED RADAR TRENDS, THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FURTHER WEST FOR HAIL AND MORE ISOLATED WEAKER TORNADOES. THE 18Z KDDC
RAOB SHOWS A STOUT EML IS STILL PRESENT, HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD QUICKLY
ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPS RATES ABOVE THE EML WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SIGNIFICANT CAPE FORMATION. SHORT TERM GRID MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE
TO ADJUST TO RECENT TRENDS. AFTER THE CELLS MOVE OUT LATE THIS EVENING,
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. DID INCREASE
POPS TO THE NW DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS 12Z DATA IS A BIT MORE
LIBERAL WITH QPF. 12Z GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS 30-35 KNOT SURFACE WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE, HOWEVER, WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY NOW
IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION OF TWO PRODUCTS OUT SIMULTANEOUSLY. IT LOOKS
LIKELY THAT A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY WILL COME INTO FRUITION TOMORROW.
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z
TOMORROW. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO TEMPERATURE
AND OTHER GRIDS. -SUGDEN

DAYS 3-7...

THE PRESSING CURRENT WARNING SITUATION WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH AND
DETAIL OF THIS DISCUSSION.  NOT MUCH WAS CHANGED IN THE EXISTING
GRIDS, AS THEY LOOK IN LINE THE THE ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT WITH THE GFS MODEL.  THERE IS STILL A STRONG WAVE
CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IT WEAKENS FRIDAY, SO THE 20
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEEM APPROPRIATE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN 2 COUNTIES. ALSO FOR MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY) NOW, THERE COULD
BE A DRY LINE SITUATION (SIMILAR TO TODAY) SET UP, WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS.  BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SHOW NARROW BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HAVE ONLY BUMPED POPS UP TO 14
PERCENT FOR NOW, AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF ANY HIGHER POPS
ARE NEEDED.  I WOULD HATE TO SPOIL HOLIDAY CAMPERS/TRAVELERS AT THIS
TIME.  NEXT WEDNESDAY, DAY 8, SEEMS A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THIS NEXT
FRIDAY, WITH AN UPPER WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DRAGGING A LOBE OF UPPER INSTABILITY THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HAVE PLACED 18 PERCENT POPS IN OUR NORTHERN 6 COUNTIES AND WENT WITH
TRW- FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL STAY THE SAME,
BASICALLY WARM FROM MONDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...

THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN QUICKLY ERODING AS WARM AIR INVADES
FROM THE SOUTH.  THERE WILL BE STRONG AND VARYING WINDS NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT APPROACHES A TAF SITE.  SINCE IT DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN THE TIME A STORM WILL HIT A TAF SITE, WENT WITH MY BEST GUESS
ON TIMING, BASICALLY FROM 23Z-03Z.  AFTER 03Z, CONVECTION WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  66  47  74 /  50  60  10   0
GCK  56  65  46  75 /  40  70  10   0
EHA  54  70  46  84 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  56  71  47  80 /  30  20   0   0
HYS  57  63  47  71 /  80  70  10   0
P28  61  72  52  74 /  80  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN36/12/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
927 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-251000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
927 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011 /827 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2011/

...HIGH RISK FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO
TENNIS-BALL SIZE OR LARGER, AND FOR DANGEROUS TORNADOES, AFTER 4
PM CDT TODAY, EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY TO
ASHLAND. THIS HIGH RISK AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON, TO EAST OF A LINE FROM HAYS TO KINSLEY TO
COLDWATER.

AS A SURFACE LOW ADVANCES EAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS, A DRY
LINE WILL PLUNGE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE, INCREASING THE DANGER OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADO
FORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE MAIN
HAZARD FOR THESE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION STRONG NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING NEAR INTERSTATE 70. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 4 PM CDT EAST OF A LINE FROM
WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND LINE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
413 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     KALVESTA                38.05N 100.28W
05/24/2011                   FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

            THE FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED 3 TO 4 MILES MILES WEST OF
            KALVESTA.

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
422 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             3 W COATS               37.51N 98.88W
05/24/2011  E1.75 INCH       PRATT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BURKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
431 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SW PRATT              37.61N 98.79W
05/24/2011  E80 MPH          PRATT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED BY AN EXPERIENCE STORM SPOTTER.

&&

BURKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
433 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             5 SSW PENDENNIS         38.59N 100.38W
05/24/2011  E1.00 INCH       LANE               KS   PUBLIC

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
438 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     HAIL             5 W ST. JOHN            38.00N 98.85W
05/24/2011  E2.75 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

            THIS REPORT BY THE PUBLIC WAS HEARD OVER THE POLICE
            SCANNER.

&&

BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
455 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KSZ043-242245-
SCOTT-
455 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTY...

AT 453 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SCOTT CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

RESIDENTS IN NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3870 10110 3870 10069 3838 10071 3842 10113
      3870 10114 3871 10113 3871 10111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 196DEG 35KT 3853 10083

AWJ