Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
752 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL CONTINUES AS OF 0130Z OVER SOUTHERN PLATTE
COUNTY.  THE STORM HAS PRODUCED LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
SOME DAMAGE IN PLATTE AND GOSHEN COUNTIES.  THE STORM IS ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL THETA AXIS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS A NARROW
BAND OF GREATER INSTABILITY.  ONCE STORM EXITS THE CWA ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO THE GOOD POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN AREAS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  IN THE MOIST SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND FLOW...THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE
DAY WILL END UP BEING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY HAS IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED FOR ABOUT ONE HALF HOUR.  THAT STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.  IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL FORM
AFTER 06Z IN AREAS OVER AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  THE CLOUDS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 1011/...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

EARLY CONVECTION MOVED QUICKLY OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND NOW
STARTING TO SEE FIRST SIGNS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
ALL INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A GOOD SHOW. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT
18Z STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL WYOMING INTO PANHANDLE WITH DEW
POINTS OVER 55 DEGREES POOLING IN THE PANHANDLE. CHEYENNE SAW DEW
POINT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSED WITHIN THE
LAST HOUR. LAPS DATA SHOWING LI'S OF MINUS 6 FROM CHEYENNE EAST TO
SIDNEY AND CAPES OVER 2000 J/KG IN THIS SAME AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING AS WELL AS THE JET LOCATED OVER
THE CWA SO IT SHOULD JUST BE A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THE STORMS
TAKE OFF. SPC HAS ISSUED DISCUSSION STATING WATCH LIKELY.

AFTER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF
BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST TOMORROW AS LOW CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT A
QUICK WARM UP IN THE MORNING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
PACIFIC COOL FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MTNS OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
WARM-UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO
TRICKLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THUS
CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE WITH UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BACKING TO WSW AND WEAK
IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. AFTER 10/06Z
EXPECT TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS ARE IN THE MID TEENS.
ONLY SAVING GRACE IS THE FUEL STATUS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY. EAST OF LARAMIE RANGE THERE WILL BE STORMS WITH LIGHTNING
BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...GRIFFITH
LONG TERM...RE
UPDATE...WEILAND

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