Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
752 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL CONTINUES AS OF 0130Z OVER SOUTHERN PLATTE
COUNTY.  THE STORM HAS PRODUCED LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
SOME DAMAGE IN PLATTE AND GOSHEN COUNTIES.  THE STORM IS ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL THETA AXIS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS A NARROW
BAND OF GREATER INSTABILITY.  ONCE STORM EXITS THE CWA ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO THE GOOD POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN AREAS
OVER AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  IN THE MOIST SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND FLOW...THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE
DAY WILL END UP BEING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

.AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY HAS IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED FOR ABOUT ONE HALF HOUR.  THAT STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.  IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL FORM
AFTER 06Z IN AREAS OVER AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  THE CLOUDS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 1011/...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

EARLY CONVECTION MOVED QUICKLY OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND NOW
STARTING TO SEE FIRST SIGNS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
ALL INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A GOOD SHOW. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT
18Z STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL WYOMING INTO PANHANDLE WITH DEW
POINTS OVER 55 DEGREES POOLING IN THE PANHANDLE. CHEYENNE SAW DEW
POINT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSED WITHIN THE
LAST HOUR. LAPS DATA SHOWING LI'S OF MINUS 6 FROM CHEYENNE EAST TO
SIDNEY AND CAPES OVER 2000 J/KG IN THIS SAME AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING AS WELL AS THE JET LOCATED OVER
THE CWA SO IT SHOULD JUST BE A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THE STORMS
TAKE OFF. SPC HAS ISSUED DISCUSSION STATING WATCH LIKELY.

AFTER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF
BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST TOMORROW AS LOW CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT A
QUICK WARM UP IN THE MORNING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
PACIFIC COOL FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
MAINLY DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MTNS OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
WARM-UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO
TRICKLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THUS
CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE WITH UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BACKING TO WSW AND WEAK
IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. AFTER 10/06Z
EXPECT TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS ARE IN THE MID TEENS.
ONLY SAVING GRACE IS THE FUEL STATUS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY. EAST OF LARAMIE RANGE THERE WILL BE STORMS WITH LIGHTNING
BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...GRIFFITH
LONG TERM...RE
UPDATE...WEILAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
202 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2011

WYZ101>119-101645-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
202 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADO WATCH 754 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A CHEYENNE
TO RAWLINS LINE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
ESPECIALLY EAST OF A CHEYENNE TO DOUGLAS LINE WHERE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT
SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE NEXT SHOT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-101645-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
202 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADO WATCH 754 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WHERE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
TO EXIT THE PANHANDLE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. A
FEW THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. THE NEXT SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
844 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             12 NW HARRISBURG        41.67N 103.90W
08/09/2011  M0.25 INCH       BANNER             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MOSTLY PEA SIZE WITH SOME MARBLE SIZED HAIL MIXED IN.

&&

BCHAPMAN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
850 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     HAIL             9 NE KIMBALL            41.32N 103.54W
08/09/2011  E0.88 INCH       KIMBALL            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BCHAPMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
857 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2011

NEZ019-096-WYZ107-108-100345-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY WY-GOSHEN COUNTY WY-SCOTTS BLUFF NE-SOUTH SIOUX
NE-
857 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE...
SOUTHWESTERN SIOUX...SOUTHERN GOSHEN AND NORTHWESTERN SCOTTS BLUFF
COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM MDT...

AT 852 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VETERAN...OR 25 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TORRINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
YODER AND VETERAN AROUND 910 PM MDT.
LYMAN AROUND 925 PM MDT.
HENRY AROUND 930 PM MDT.
MORRILL AROUND 935 PM MDT.
MITCHELL AROUND 940 PM MDT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 400 AM MDT. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL
RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4229 10400 4180 10371 4174 10464 4186 10468
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 249DEG 40KT 4185 10448

RUBIN

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