Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
411 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY AND BRING FAIR WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND SHIFT/FIRST FRONT JUST ABOUT THROUGH WARREN COUNTY AT 19Z. AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA. THE HUGE CAPES OF >2000J/KG AND ONLY MODEST SHEAR WILL
MAKE SVR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE OR EVEN LIKELY...AND THE TALL STORMS
COULD MAKE MARGINAL HAIL WITH DEEP UPDRAFTS BUT 15KFT OF MELTING
POSSIBLE. OLD BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNING DID BRIEFLY SPIN ONE
STORM THROUGH SOUTHERN CENTRE CO...AND A FEW MORE
WEAKER/SMALLER/SHORTER ROTATING CELLS OUT THERE NOW.

SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE NW BY 20Z...AND ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA BY 00-02Z. WILL TAPER POPS FROM NW TO SE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DRY AIR COMES IN ON A COUPLE OF WAVES/TROUGHS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. FIRST WIND SHIFT SHOULD TAKE THE DEEP MOISTURE AWAY
BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE FLOW TURNS DECIDEDLY
NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY AND COOL AIR WILL RUSH IN
BUT THE CLEARING SKIES...DROPPING TEMPS AND HIGH AMBIENT MOISTURE
FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CREATE AREAS OF FOG. DENSE FOG IS ALMOST
LIKELY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON CALLING IT DENSE AT THIS POINT.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CREATE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...AND THE
CLOUD COVER THERE MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
TONIGHT...BUT GUID GOES INTO THE 40S. WILL HOLD IT AT 50F FOR
BFD IN THE GRIDS. ISOLD COLD ADV SHRA WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
DAY IN THE NRN MTS...AND PERHAPS GET MORE NUMEROUS IN THE
AFTN...AS +8C 8H TEMPS MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL PA. REST OF AREA WILL
BE BREEZY BUT FAIR AS HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...BRINGING COOL TEMPS TUES MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WED NIGHT AS WAA
MODERATES LOW TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S. COLD FRONT REACHES CENTRAL
PA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AS TEMPS
PEAK SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT ATTENTION WILL
NEED TO BE PAID TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF NOW TROPICAL STORM IRENE
/WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SUN NIGHT/ AS LONG
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING REMNANTS TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FIRST WIND SHIFT JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF BFD AND SHOULD PASS THRU THE
REST OF THE AREA BY 02Z. SPOTTY MVFR AND IFR WILL BE FOUND IN
TSRA. LOTS OF FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH CIG REDUCTIONS
TO IFR LIKELY AT BFD AND JST. OTHER LOCATIONS COULD ALSO GO TO IFR
IN FOG. ANOTHER PUSH OF DRY AIR WILL USHER IN THE REALLY COOLER
TEMPS AND INSTABILITY FOR POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE N.

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH STRATO
CU AND SOME ISOLD SHRA IN THE NRN MTS...VC BFD. REST OF THE
TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...VFR.
THU...SCT MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
FRI...MVFR NW...VFR SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1252 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-221700-
NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-
BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-
LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1252 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 794 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ004>006-010-011-037-221700-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-TIOGA-
1252 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     HAIL             LEMONT                  40.81N  77.82W
08/21/2011  E0.88 INCH       CENTRE             PA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100375

MACH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
325 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

PAZ066-212015-
LANCASTER PA-
325 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY...

AT 323 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR GAP...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. EXPECT FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT CHURCHTOWN.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 292
AND 295.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 30...ROUTE
322...STATE ROAD 41.

LAT...LON 4013 7588 4011 7593 4003 7593 3996 7599
      3993 7598 3989 7599 3989 7600 4000 7617
      4021 7598 4014 7587

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
338 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STATE COLLEGE           40.79N  77.86W
08/21/2011                   CENTRE             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN FROM STATE COLLEGE TO LINDEN HALL
            AND BOALSBURG. TREES ON SOME HOUSES.

0208 PM     HAIL             LEMONT                  40.81N  77.82W
08/21/2011  E0.88 INCH       CENTRE             PA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100374 CTP1100375

MACH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

PAZ052-058-212100-
NORTHUMBERLAND PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL
NORTHUMBERLAND AND NORTHERN SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES THROUGH
5 PM EDT...

AT 335 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
SHEPPTON TO ASHLAND TO VALLEY VIEW...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. EXPECT FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD GROUND LIGHTNING FROM
THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES
WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES. VERY HEAVY RAIN OF UP TO ONE INCH IN JUST 30 MINUTES
WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE RAPID RISES
ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT
SHENANDOAH...AND GILBERTON...JOE ZERBEY
AIRPORT...POTTSVILLE...MINERSVILLE...AND FRACKVILLE...ST.
CLAIR...PORT CARBON...MCADOO AND MAHANOY CITY.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 113 AND 139.

LAT...LON 4065 7605 4069 7660 4072 7654 4077 7651
      4082 7640 4078 7638 4080 7631 4087 7629
      4094 7613 4091 7605 4091 7599 4081 7588

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
405 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             ENOLA                   40.29N  76.94W
08/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       CUMBERLAND         PA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100376

MACH

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