Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
414 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGIONS REMAINS IN A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12AM SUNDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER AND MUCH DRIER TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RADAR STARTING TO SHOW INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AS DAYTIME HEATING
MAXIMIZES. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SE AT NEAR 20 KNOTS. NOT
EXPECTING BIG HAIL OR STRONG WINDS WITH THESE...MORE LIKELY VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING AND THUNDER. 12Z NAM12
AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AND INTENSIFYING ACROSS SE ZONES. GIVEN LAST NIGHTS
RAINFALL AND STREAM RISES AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SE COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES OVERNIGHT WITH
DEW POINTS DROPPING AND PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING ON SE HALF OF CWA AS FRONTAL
SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MADE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY'S AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING TO THE SE SUN NIGHT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE SE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
/BELOW NORMAL/ FOR SUN/MON. LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/TSTM ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WEAK TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
EDGES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE PA/NY BORDER WITH A BIT OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT.

AFTER THAT...RIDGING RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK AS WED/THU WILL SEE A
RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES /AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL/...THOUGH GFS/ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE BY THIS TIME. THE
NEXT CHC OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST WED NIGHT...WHEN
AN MCS MAY ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED TSTMS THUR-FRI AS THE SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WEAKEN
AND SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...ALLOWING A FNTL SYS TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A LINE
OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AND AND
CB AT ALL SITES...NO TSRA DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A STORM WILL
HIT ANY ONE SITE. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING. BR/FG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE A CONCERN BY EARLY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

MON-THU MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WENT AHEAD AND ENDED FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SWATARA CREEK AS THE CREST
OCCURRED AND THE CREEK IS FALLING AND MARFC FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RISES THERE. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING COULD BRING FAST RISES TO SMALL STREAMS AND POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ056>059-
063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ROSS/DEVOIR/CERU
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...KREKELER
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1054 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
121500-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
1054 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ056>059-063>066-121500-
PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1054 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
437 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

PAZ010-017-112145-
CLEARFIELD PA-ELK PA-
437 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CLEARFIELD AND
SOUTHEASTERN ELK COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 434 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
BROCKPORT TO FALLS CREEK TO BIG RUN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. A 20 MINUTE PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...BETWEEN ONE
HALF OF AN INCH AND ONE INCH...WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND
WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE
RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE NEAR TROUTVILLE AROUND 445 PM...FORCE AROUND 500
PM...BENEZETTE AROUND 515 PM...HYDE AROUND 530 PM AND WOODLAND
AROUND 545 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 123.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 119...ROUTE
219...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD 153...STATE ROAD 255.

LAT...LON 4121 7876 4121 7872 4122 7872 4123 7874
      4126 7874 4128 7878 4133 7874 4139 7825
      4132 7824 4114 7826 4096 7837 4095 7881
      4113 7881

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
442 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

PAZ026>028-112145-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-MIFFLIN PA-
442 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
HUNTINGDON...SOUTHWESTERN JUNIATA AND SOUTHWESTERN MIFFLIN COUNTIES
THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 439 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR RAYSTOWN DAM...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
EXPECT FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS
STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN
LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. A
15 TO 20 MINUTE PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO FALL FROM THIS
STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MILL CREEK AROUND 450 PM...MOUNT UNION
AROUND 500 PM...NEWTON HAMILTON AROUND 510 PM...ALLENSVILLE AROUND
520 PM...MCVEYTOWN AROUND 530 PM AND BLACKLOG AROUND 540 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22...ROUTE
22/522...ROUTE 522.

LAT...LON 4062 7764 4035 7765 4040 7808 4048 7812
      4054 7807

FORECASTER: LAMBERT