Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
414 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGIONS REMAINS IN A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12AM SUNDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER AND MUCH DRIER TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RADAR STARTING TO SHOW INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AS DAYTIME HEATING
MAXIMIZES. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SE AT NEAR 20 KNOTS. NOT
EXPECTING BIG HAIL OR STRONG WINDS WITH THESE...MORE LIKELY VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING AND THUNDER. 12Z NAM12
AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AND INTENSIFYING ACROSS SE ZONES. GIVEN LAST NIGHTS
RAINFALL AND STREAM RISES AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SE COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES OVERNIGHT WITH
DEW POINTS DROPPING AND PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING ON SE HALF OF CWA AS FRONTAL
SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MADE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY'S AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING TO THE SE SUN NIGHT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE SE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
/BELOW NORMAL/ FOR SUN/MON. LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/TSTM ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WEAK TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW
EDGES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE PA/NY BORDER WITH A BIT OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT.

AFTER THAT...RIDGING RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK AS WED/THU WILL SEE A
RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES /AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL/...THOUGH GFS/ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE BY THIS TIME. THE
NEXT CHC OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST WED NIGHT...WHEN
AN MCS MAY ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED TSTMS THUR-FRI AS THE SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WEAKEN
AND SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...ALLOWING A FNTL SYS TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A LINE
OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AND AND
CB AT ALL SITES...NO TSRA DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT A STORM WILL
HIT ANY ONE SITE. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING. BR/FG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE A CONCERN BY EARLY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

MON-THU MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WENT AHEAD AND ENDED FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SWATARA CREEK AS THE CREST
OCCURRED AND THE CREEK IS FALLING AND MARFC FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RENEWED RISES THERE. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING COULD BRING FAST RISES TO SMALL STREAMS AND POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ056>059-
063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ROSS/DEVOIR/CERU
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...KREKELER
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1054 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
121500-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
1054 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ056>059-063>066-121500-
PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1054 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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